NCAA Basketball Predictions for Dayton vs. Arkansas

Jeff Grant

Friday, December 12, 2014 6:29 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 12, 2014 6:29 PM GMT

Arkansas possesses one of the more balanced offenses in the country, as it prepares to face a defensive-minded Dayton squad that has been known to pull off major upsets in the past.

Building Off Last Year
Dayton is trying to prove that last year’s Elite 8 appearance wasn’t a fluke, as it has won seven of its first eight games—holding opponents under 70 points in all of its victories.

The Flyers rank 27th in the country in holding opponents to a 42.4 effective field goal percentage, which is important to consider when making your NCAA basketball picks, while causing opponents to turn it over on 20.1 percent of their possessions.

It’s important to point out that the squad has covered the number in its last nine games versus teams that hail from the Southeastern Conference.

 

No Place Like Home
Arkansas returns to Bud Walton Arena after dropping back-to-back road games to Iowa State and Clemson, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NCAA basketball odds, as it has captured all five of its contests at home.

The Razorbacks are averaging 92.4 points in front of their faithful fans, with most of that success being attributed to ball movement, as they’ve averaged 21.6 assists in that situation.

Sports bettors will find that the program is a dominating 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games inside this building when taking on a foe with a winning road road record.

 

Perimeter Struggles
The Flyers need to knock down some transition three-pointers if they hope to cover the number, but they rank 321st nationally in shooting 26.8 percent from beyond the arc.

Dayton is capable of hanging around regardless, as it has compiled a 26-9 SU record against Power Five conference members over the last eight years, while also securing a win in nine of its last 11 versus the SEC.

 

Up and Running
The Razorbacks will look to control the pace of this game, as they sit behind just 14 teams in averaging 15.3 seconds on the offensive end, which is a big reason why they’ve won 19 consecutive home games versus non-conference opponents.

Four of Arkansas’ five starters are averaging double figures, with the main player to watch being forward Bobby Portis, who ranks in the top 15 in the Southeastern Conference in both scoring and rebounding.

 

Outlook
I’ve established the Razorbacks as nine-point favorites in this matchup, which means readers should lay the points if the number is lower than that in the market, while backing the road underdog at 9.5 or higher.

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