NCAA Basketball Picks: Washington vs. Stanford

Darin Zank

Wednesday, March 11, 2015 3:48 PM GMT

Neither Stanford or Washington is inspiring much betting confidence at the moment, but that doesn't mean we didn't find a lean for tonight's six-vs.-11 game in the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas.

Huskies-Cardinal Betting Odds
The NCAA Basketball odds opened this game with Stanford favored by 7.5 points, the total proffered at around 142. In the early betting many books bumped the Cardinal to -8.

 

Huskies-Cardinal: Background
Washington had lost 10 of its previous 11 games, but pulled an upset in its regular-season finale, beating Utah 77-68 as a 13-point underdog. The Huskies shot 51 percent from the floor Saturday, and hit eight-of-14 from 3-point range, although they also allowed the Utes to shoot 52 percent from the floor.

Prior to that victory U-Dub had lost three in a row both SU and ATS, falling to UCLA by 22, to USC by 15 and to Colorado by 17.

At 5-13 in conference play the Huskies finished in 11th place in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Stanford, meanwhile, got to 18-9 overall and 9-6 in conference play, but ended the regular-season by losing its last three games to fall out of NCAA tournament contention. Ten days ago the Cardinal lost at home to Oregon 73-70; last Thursday they lost at Arizona State 67-62; and Saturday they got blown out at Arizona 91-69. Stanford lost outright as a six-point favorite against the Ducks; couldn't cover as two-point underdogs against the Sun Devils; and whiffed ATS as 14-point dogs against the Wildcats.

Going back to the end of January the Cardinal are 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games.

At 9-9 the Cardinal finished in a tie for fifth place in the Pac-12 with Arizona State.

The winner of this game will play third-seeded Utah Thursday.

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Huskies-Cardinal Recent History
Stanford has already taken two games from U-Dub this season, by scores of 68-60 in overtime and 84-74. The Cardinal got lucky and covered that first meeting as six-point home favorites, then covered the second meeting as two-point road favorites.

Washington almost pulled the upset in that first meeting, but gave up the basket that forced OT with three seconds to go. But the second game played out a little differently, as Stanford led at one point in the second half by 26 points, before allowing the Huskies, who were playing their first game without C Robert Upshaw, to salvage a more respectable final score.

Upshaw, who was leading the nation in blocked shots, got kicked off the team just before that Jan. 28 game. Since then Washington is 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS.

That first meeting, even with the overtime period, played UNDER its total of 131, while the second game cruised OVER its total of 140.

 

Huskies-Cardinal, By the Numbers
Washington is shooting 43.5 percent from the floor this season, and just 32 percent from 3-point land, but is holding opponents to 42 percent FG shooting.

Stanford is shooting 43.5 percent from the floor, and almost 39 percent from 3-point range, which is pretty good, while holding foes to 42.5 percent from the floor.

 

Huskies-Cardinal Betting Trends
Washington is 16-13 on the totals this season, as Huskies games have averaged 136 points.

Stanford is 15-14 on the totals, as Cardinal games have averaged 140 points.

Injury Update
Washington F Shawn Kemp (10 points, four boards PG) has missed the last four games with a sore calf, and is questionable to return tonight.

 

Huskies-Cardinal Free Pick
Stanford has its troubles at the moment, but it's still the better team in this match-up. The Cardinals do a decent job both on the boards and at the FT line, and those aspects can be key when trying to cover a spread. Also, while Stanford finished 9-9 in conference play, seven of those losses came by seven points or less. Transpose a few buckets here and there and the Cardinal might be Dancing. Meanwhile, Washington upset Utah last time out, but in our book that just opens the door for a “fade” play on the Huskies as our NCAA Basketball pick.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Stanford -9 at Pinnacle