NCAA Basketball Picks: Virginia vs. Florida State

PJ Laferla

Thursday, March 7, 2013 5:03 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 7, 2013 5:03 PM UTC

The Virginia Cavaliers (20-9 SU, 4-7 ATS away) will be on the road this Thursday night when they travel to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles (15-14 SU, 5-9 ATS home) in an ACC rivalry matchup.

ACC Pick

Both teams are gunning for a win, but find out which squad we believe is the better play to beat the college basketball odds.

Tip off in this one is set for 7:00 PM EST from the Donald L. Tucker Center and can be seen live on television, with national broadcast coverage provided by ESPN2.

Sportsbooks, such as Bookmaker have listed the visitors as the team laying the chalk in this matchup, with Virginia favored by -3 ½ points. However, the Cavaliers are only 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on the road and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 matchups against the Seminoles.

That said, Florida State has some very poor numbers against the spread as of late, In fact, they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games played at home and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The games total has been set to just 124 points, but that number might be hard to eclipse, given Virginia’s stingy defense that is holding opponents to fewer than 55 points per contest (54.4), which ranks 4th best in the nation.

Low scoring games have become a familiar trend when the Cavaliers and Seminoles meet on the court, with 8 of the last 9 meetings staying under the posted total, including 7 of 8 when the game is being played in Tallahassee. Furthermore, Virginia is under is 16 of their last 23 games played on the road.

Don't forget to also check out our Value picks for today!


The Pick

Virginia managed to pick up a SU win against Duke this week, but followed that game with a loss to Boston College. The Cavaliers remain a team on the bubble, so they could be playing with some desperation or maybe motivation; but they are 3-8 SU on the road this year and the last time that beat Florida State in Tallahassee was 12 years ago during the 2001 campaign.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles will fail to reach the tournament this season, but that doesn’t mean they will put forth a lackluster effort in this one. Florida State will want to finish its season with a big win in front of their hometown fans, not to mention extend its winning streak to ten straight games against Virginia in Tallahassee.

When taking all factors about this game into consideration, Virginia -3 ½ is the right NCAAB pick to make, as they will come way with a big win and point spread cover tonight against Florida State.

NCAAB Pick: Virginia -3 ½ at Bookmaker

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