NCAA Basketball Picks: Underdog Clemson To Cover ATS vs. Virginia

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 6:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 1, 2016 6:37 PM UTC

Virginia travels to South Carolina to face Clemson. Clemson has been a real surprise so far because they began the season with underdog upsets. See my NCAA basketball pick for this game. 

Virginia (-5) vs. Clemson 7:00 ET
Who would have guessed when the Tigers’ ongoing renovation of Littlejohn Coliseum forced them to Greenville that they would have “gotten well”? But that is exactly what has happened. Tonight, in their LHG at their home away from home, they face a Virginia team that is still battling for the ACC regular season crown, trailing Miami and North Carolina by a single game heading into the last week of action. I’ll favor the Clemson Tigers in this QLHG (qualified last home game) scenario that sets up perfectly for the Tigers.

Again this season, seventh year Virginia HC Tony Bennett has done a magnificent job in ascending his Cavaliers to the upper echelon of the nation in terms of overall wins and defensive performance. The offense has successfully adjusted to the shortened time clock, yet still has among the nation’s fewest possessions per game, which implies incredible offensive efficiency. These two met earlier this season at the JP Jones Arena in C’ville where the Cavs escaped in a slow tempo 69-62 home win. Brogdon and Perrantes are an experienced guard tandem that is among the best in the nation.

After a 69-62 loss at Florida St January 17th, Virginia was 2-3 SU ATS in ACC play. Since then, they have tightened the defensive screws, allowing 70 points only two times in the current 9-2 SU run. If there has been an Achilles heel for Virginia it has been their play on the ACC road, where they are just 3-5 SU ATS in Conference play. No surprise to this bureau if Virginia falters again following their ESPN primetime home victory over league leader North Carolina 79-74, Saturday night.


Betting Analysis
Clemson has been the real surprise of the league, especially at Bon Secours. They began the season with home underdog upsets of Florida St, Louisville, Duke, Miami Fla, and Pitt. Though they failed in their mission against Notre Dame, note that they are still 7-1 SU at Bon Secours in ACC play. Combination of revenge for that earlier loss, their LHG scenario, and consecutive road losses at Georgia Tech and NC St (by a combined 5 points) give the Tigers all the incentive they need to close their home away from home season on a positive note. Upset no surprise to this bureau in a truly qualified LHG. I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds boards in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball picks on the Clemson Tigers.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Clemson +4.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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