NCAA Basketball Picks - UCF Outclasses Penn On The Boards

Mark Lathrop

Monday, December 12, 2016 2:59 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 12, 2016 2:59 PM UTC

Our college basketball handicapper brings a 10-2 ATS record into this week's action. Do we need to say more? Read on as he makes his next winning pick.

Pennsylvania Quakers vs UCF Knights  

On the short card on Monday night, we have one of the strongest records in the country in the 7-1 UCF Knights hosting the 3-5 Pennsylvania Quakers of the Ivy League. There is quite a difference in early posted spreads in this game, as the Knights are favored by 9 to 10 points across the board. The early O/U total has been posted at 128.5 points.


Pennsylvania Quakers

Penn comes into this game 3-5 SU and 2-2 ATS, as they have played 4 games without lines listed so far this season. You can’t say that they’ve played a cupcake schedule, though, not with current number 1 ranked Villanova on the list. The Quakers lost to Villanova at home 82-57 and failed to cover as 13.5-point home underdogs. Penn’s SU wins this year have come at the hands of Robert Morris, Central Connecticut State, and Lafayette – games with no lines listed.

Penn comes into this matchup fresh off of a 17-point loss to George Mason as a 3-point home favorite. George Mason ended up rotating seven players to Penn’s six in this game, and 6’ 9” George Mason forward, Jalen Jenkins, had a career night going 9-11 from the field and 4-4 from the charity stripe in scoring 22 very efficient points. 6’ 4” Penn guard, Matt Howard, led the way for the Quakers with 15 points over 32 minutes. Not much excitement to talk about with Penn’s offense.


UCF Knights 

UCF enters Monday night’s game after a 76-58 warmup against Maryland Eastern Shore, which sounds more like a condominium complex than a college with a basketball team. Maybe we can all split a time share. But I digress. The game before this cupcake was a 65-62 win against UMass as a 4.5-point favorite. 6’ 6” swingman, Tank Efianayi, was a force off the bench in this game, as he scored a season-high 24 points in just 28 minutes of play. Tank is shooting a hot 44.6% from behind the arc this season.

But no breakdown of UCF would be complete without checking in with their big man, 7’ 6” sophomore center, Tacko Fall, out of Dakar, Senegal. Fall is averaging a double-double this year, and his 12.6 rebound per game is a big reason that UCF is ranked 3rd in the country in rebounds on the season. Fall averages 13.4 points per game on an insane 81% field goal completion rate. Basically, if he catches the ball near the basket he just reaches over and puts it in over the top of any defender.


Betting Analysis

Penn may be scrappy, like most Ivy League teams, but they are severely outsized in this matchup. They will be hard pressed to keep this one close on the road at UCF, and the rebounding edge will just make it worse. The Knights should be able to control this game from start to finish and win by double digits. Take UCF at -9-points like at BookMaker, now offering 50% free play bonus, as one of your Monday college basketball picks.


Free NCAAB Picks: UCF -9Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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