NCAA Basketball Picks: Trust Motivated Arizona To Take Down Washington

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 14, 2016 2:58 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016 2:58 PM UTC

The Washington Huskies bring their 3-0 SU ATS conference record to the high desert tonight, when they face an angry Arizona Wildcats team. Who will be in our NCAA basketball picks?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Arizona Wildcats -13½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Washington vs. Arizona (-13-) 9:00 ET FS1 TV
These teams played just once last season with the Wildcats emerging with an (86-62) victory on this court. Look for more of the same tonight, after 5th year Arizona HC Miller has cracked the whip at practice the last 4 days. Further motivating the Wildcats is the loss of their 2nd leading scorer, freshman Alonzo Trier, who will be missing the game with a broken hand.

Every Monday in the NCAA basketball season, I review the league standings to look at the teams, whom I believe have underachieved for the conference season to date. Those teams are normally great candidates as focused bounce back teams. When I reviewed the list this Monday, there were 20 teams, whom I isolated as potential PLAY ON teams. Through Wednesday action, 15 of these teams had played their next game, posting an 11-4 ATS log. Arizona (the perennial league champion in recent seasons), yet now standing 1-2 SU ATS may have been at the top of the list. For they will be truly motivated by the 3-0 SU ATS log of Washington. The fact this line is a whopping 13 points is an indication that we are siding with the linemaker in this contest. A clear analogy to this came in our Tuesday night play with UNLV -6 (0-3 SU vs. New Mexico, 3-0 SU) in our Top Play Winner with the Runnin’ Rebels.


Betting Analysis
I have more respect than most for the job done by 14th year HC Lorenzo Romar at Washington. The war drums are beating, as his Huskies have averaged just 17 wins the previous 3 years and were dismissed in the 1st Round of the PAC 12 Tourney in last year’s 16-15 SU season. Lone senior, Andrew Andrews, averaging 22 PPG, leads 4 freshmen in their starting lineup. Romar is in his prime role today, where his teams are 108-77 ATS as underdog. This includes 3 PAC 12 wins this season as home dog to UCLA and USC, as well as an outright underdog win at Washington St. (99-95). In those contests, however, the Huskies have allowed 91 PPG, an indication that defense may well be their Achilles Heel. Along with my underachieving bounce back list each week, I isolate the season’s overachievers. Be assured that these Huskies have been right at the top of the list.

There are times when our enemy (the linemaker) becomes our friend. As with UNLV earlier this week, the Arizona Wildcats present just such an example. I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me with my NCAA basketball pick on the Arizona Wildcats tonight.

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