NCAA Basketball Picks: Trio Of Scorching Totals For Monday Night

Mark Lathrop

Monday, February 8, 2016 2:33 PM GMT

Monday, Feb. 8, 2016 2:33 PM GMT

Our NCAAB handicapper has scoured the board to find the best values on the totals for Monday night. Read on as he gives his sharp NCAA Basketball picks!

Oklahoma State vs. TCU (Under 127)
This game opened at BookMaker at 129.5, and then immediately was bet down to 126.5 on the O/U total line. That is interesting if only in the fact that I was considering that Over 129.5 had some value immediately after the line had come out.

Oklahoma State is averaging 70 points per game on the year, all while giving up 66.5 point per game on defense. That implies some value on the listed total, but it rarely is that easy. The Horned Frogs of TCU average 68.2 points per game on offense and 69.7 points per game on offense. That doubles up conventional wisdom on taking the Over on the listed total.

What is unfortunate for the Hokies is that Juwan Evans, the true freshman wunderkind, is out for this game. Also out is his 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game over an average of 28.9 minutes. Who also may be out? Coach Travis Ford, who is feeling the heat after another losing season in the Big 12 Conference. That leaves Jeff Newberry, who scored 23 points in the first meeting between these two teams in early January, to hold the fort for the Oklahoma State offense.

With the Sooners short handed, and holding the Horned Frogs to 30% shooting in their first meeting, I now understand why the total is getting bet down quickly at the moment. I don’t mind following the crowd here, and will take Under 127 as on of my Monday NCAAB Picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 127
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Samford vs. Citadel (Over 177)
Citadel has the #1 ranked offense in all of college basketball scoring a blistering 88.7 points per game. They are even better at home where they average 92.1 points per game.

It is with this knowledge that we look at the highest total on the board in their matchup with Samford, opening at 178 at 5Dimes. This line has since moved to 177 and now we need to decide if early action was sharp action.

These teams met about a month ago, with Samford scoring 94 points and holding Citadel to 74 points. That score went just under the listed total of 170 for the game, which was the highest posted total in a matchup between these two teams that I can find. We could look at the 5-5 O/U record between these two teams in the last ten meetings, but it won’t mean much as the totals haven’t been posted higher than 140 in any of them.

That last game proved that Samford was capable of picking up the pace along with Citadel, and they won’t try to force them into a different type of game. And with Citadel on their home court, you can bet that they will be making three’s with abandon – they almost make 12 per game. This line should keep moving down, so wait until right before tip-off, but the Over is the right play on this game.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 176
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Louisville vs. Duke (Over 147)
Louisville and Duke average 79 and 84.8 points per game, respectively, but it is the Louisville defense we should be concerned about in making the judgment on the O/U total. That total has opened at 147 in the NCAA basketball odds boards.

Louisville has held opponents to 59.8 points per game this year, but that changes when they are facing top-100 RPI foes on the road, were they are allowing an average of 68.5 points per game. Overall, Louisville’s defense regardless of opponent is a different animal on the road as they allow 73 points per game.

With Duke scoring 87.5 points per game at home, we should have one team touching the 80 mark in this game, and one team has scored at least 80 points in each of Duke’s last four games, which all would have gone over the total of 147. Louisville’s defensive numbers have depressed this O/U line just a bit much, and we can take advantage by going with Over 147 with one of our NCAA basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 147
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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