NCAA Basketball Picks: Trends Point To Kansas St. -3.5 Over Texas Tech In Big 12 Action

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2016 12:43 PM UTC

Kansas St. has had a difficult opening to their conference schedule. Can they right the ship against a foe they have dominated in the Texas Tech? Find out our NCAA basketball pick.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Kansas State -3.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


We have a full slate of Big 12 college basketball games tonight, and one of the more interesting matchups is the Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3, 1-2) visit the Kansas State Wildcats (10-5, 0-3). Kansas State is looking to get their first conference win after losing the last three games as they find themselves at the bottom of the Big 12 standings. Texas Tech is currently grouped with 5 teams tied for fifth place in the conference. Even though they are in the basement of the conference, the Wildcats are favored in this game by 3.5 points at home across the NCAA basketball odds boards. The very early O/U total is currently listed at 134 at Bookmaker.


Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State is 0-3 in conference play but an argument could be made that they’ve had the toughest opening schedule. Their only home game was the conference opener against 11th ranked West Virginia, and Kansas Sate took the Mountaineers to double overtime before finally succumbing 87-83. The Wildcats then went on the road and lost by three points at Texas. Their last game was a loss at 2nd ranked Oklahoma, 86-76. More importantly for us, Kansas State was 0-3 SU in those matchups but 3-0 ATS.

Kansas State couldn’t repeat their upset of Oklahoma in Norman from last year, falling behind early in the first half. Kansas State shot just 38.4% from the floor, all while allowing Oklahoma to shoot 56.5%. It was just the third time all season that Kansas State had allowed a team to score more than 80 points on them. Oklahoma was coming off of an overtime loss to Kansas and was looking for a bounce back, and boy did they get one.

Freshman guard, Barry Brown, led the Wildcats in scoring versus Oklahoma. Brown played the most minutes of his career at 30 in the game, scoring 19 points and adding 8 rebounds. Another freshman, 6-10 forward Dean Wade, was the second leading scorer for Kansas State in that game even after going 0-5 from three-point range.


Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is coming off of a ten-point loss against #1 ranked Kansas at home. Looking at the box score this could have been a better game for the Red Raiders, or at least they would have covered the 7-point spread, if they could have shot just average. The Red Raiders were 9-19 from the charity stripe (!) and 4-16 from 3-point range.

Although senior guard Devaugntah Williams leads the Red Raiders in scoring this year with 14 points per game, he scored just 4 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting from the field.  Williams scored 23 points in the Red Raiders only Big 12 conference win against Texas, where he was able to get to the free throw line 13 times – and was a perfect 13-13. Bottling up Williams is a good game plan for anyone hoping to beat Texas Tech this year.


Betting Analysis
Kansas State has owned this matchup recently, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 games playing Texas Tech. The streak is better at home where the Wildcats are 5-0 SU when the Red Raiders visit Kansas State.

For my NCAA basketball picks, I like this as a letdown spot for the Red Raiders, as they put their all into spoiling Kansas’ #1 ranking in their last game. And for Kansas State, a date with a team they have owned over recent years should be just what the doctor ordered after three straight conference losses. The fact that Kansas State finds itself in the bottom of the Big 12 standings might make this spread a little more reasonable than it would normally be. I’m taking the Wildcats to continue their dominance of Texas Tech and laying the 3.5 points at Heritage as one of my Tuesday College Basketball Picks.

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