NCAA Basketball Picks: Top Pair Of Winning 'Over' Selections

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 3:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016 3:47 PM UTC

Our NCAAB handicapper has parsed the betting card for the best O/U total value for your Wednesday. Read on as he makes his bankroll boosting picks!

Boise State vs. Colorado State 
Coach Leon Rice must be frustrated with the state of his team right now after losing a very winnable game to Air Force, 61-53. His message to the team is likely going to be to ‘go faster’. I heard Rice on the local radio the other day describing his basketball philosophy of speed. Pressing, running, and basically “out-offensing” the opponent as opposed to running set plays and concentrating on defense. It’s the basic premise of a team that usually warrants a high posted total by the NCAA basketball odds makers.

But Boise State has gone cold from the field lately, shooting 5-22 in their last game against Air Force from 3-point range and an awful 10-22 from the charity stripe. That kind of bad shooting is basically not sustainable and a regression to average is in store for the Broncos. Boise State averages 77 points per game overall this season and their efforts in only their last two games have served to drop that average. In the three games before that they scored 83, 77, and 81 points.

Colorado State has some sharpshooters from three on their squad, with their top two scorers, Gian Clavell and Antwan Scott, going 42.2% and 45.1% from behind the arc, respectively. Colorado State averages 80.3 points per game and included in that is 9.6 3-pointers per contest. The pace will be high in this game so Colorado should get enough extra possessions to bring that total into double digits on Wednesday night.

The current O/U line on this game is a reasonable 156 points, and with both teams fully capable in scoring in the 80’s in a what should be a close game, I believe the Over has value as one of you NCAA Basketball Picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 156
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Washington vs. Utah 
The Washington Huskies road defense allows 85.4 points per game, which ranks them 340th in the NCAA for this statistic. I guess it is a good thing then that the Huskies are ranked 5th in the league in overall scoring at 84.6 points per game. Utah is no slouch on offense either, scoring 85 points per game at home, which ranks 34th in the NCAA. However, Utah’s defense is a little better than 340th, as they allow 70.3 points per game on their home floor. That is good for 217th in the NCAA for defense at home. The discrepancy in home and away defense is one of the reasons that Utah has opened as an 8-point favorite in this game.

The first Pac-12 meeting between these two teams ended with Utah winning 80-75 in Seattle, which put the total just under the line of 158. In a sign of the times, that 158 posted total was the highest line between these two teams that I can find going back to 2004. That game actually took an overtime period to get that high though, as the game ended 66-66 at the end of regulation. Both teams struggled from three-point range, going a combined 12-50 from behind the arc. In what has become a trend for the Huskies lately, two Washington players fouled out of the game.

In fact, the Huskies are about to set a record for most players fouled out of games in an NCAAB season. When I see that, I automatically think of untimed scoring chances, which we should see plenty of on the road in Utah. That combined with the awful scoring defense, or one really leads to the other, is enough for me to take the over in this matchup with confidence.

Currently the line varies from 157.5 to 159, so you will want to shop that line a bit, but you can take Over 157.5 with confidence.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 157.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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