NCAA Basketball Picks: Top Pair of Saturday Night Totals

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, February 13, 2016 6:11 PM GMT

Our NCAAB handicapper has another pair of totals to add to your card on a busy NCAAB schedule this Saturday. Read on as he makes his NCAA Basketball picks!

Gonzaga vs. SMU (Over 145)
Gonzaga let us down in our Thursday pick, putting up 92 points and stifling Portland to just 66, but just going over our pick of under 157 on the total at 158. No matter, when you are able to hit 15 3-pointers and beat the spread by a measly point I’m not going to get too upset at the analysis on the game.

Gonzaga (20-5, 12-2) currently sits atop the West Coast Conference, while 16th ranked Southern Methodist (20-3, 9-3) sits atop the American Athletic Conference. A win here for Gonzaga would surely put them back in the Top-25 rankings. They have won six in a row since losing to Saint Mary’s on January 21st, and many of the conference games haven’t been close to competitive.

These two teams, as indicated above, have been on a 3-point completion binge. Gonzaga has made 13 or more 3-point shots in 3 of their last 5 games, and SMU has made 25 in their last two games combined. While that has resulting in games going over the listed total for SMU, the stakes were a little higher for Gonzaga and three pointers made haven’t resulted in autobet wins on the over just yet.

I’m looking for at least one of these teams, if not both, to score in the 80’s on Saturday night. Gonzaga’s depth right now is a little suspect, basically a 6-man rotation, so any foul trouble with them and they will take a serious step back on defense. In what should be a relatively close game, that should be enough to put this game well over the listed total of 142 on the NCAA Basketball odds board and that’s what I am taking as one of my Saturday NCAA Basketball Picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 142
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 

 

Citadel vs. Wofford (Under 176.5)
I’ve picked on Citadel once this week, in that they don’t have the defense to stop a gnat. However, with this game against Wofford, there is reason to believe that the listed total of 176.5 is a tad higher than what we should reasonably expect from these two teams.

These two teams met a month ago at Citadel, with Wofford taking the game 86-83 for a total of 169 that exceeded the total of 166.5. Wofford shot a blistering 50.9% from the field in that game, added 8 3-pointers (44.4%), and added 24 points at the charity stripe out of 33 attempts. The 50.9% field goal average far exceeds their season average of 45.0%. Meanwhile, Citadel shot 42.9% from the floor in their 83-point effort, which is right on line with their season average of 42.7%.

Citadel has allowed some very high scores to opposing teams on the road recently: 125 points to Chattanooga, 88 points to Mercer, and 95 points to Furman just Thursday. But looking at the numbers that Wofford shot in the first game versus the pace, I don’t see a way for these teams to come up with another 7 points to exceed this higher total of 176.5. With Wofford being the home team, they will likely try to slow the pace of Citadel down as well to their usual pace in the 70’s. Even a mildly successful effort from Wofford should keep the total on this game under 175 and that is my NCAA Basketball pick.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 175
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker