NCAA Basketball Picks: Texas Tech vs. Texas Big 12 Showdown

David Lawrence

Wednesday, March 11, 2015 3:04 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2015 3:04 PM GMT

The last game on the Big 12 Tournament card will feature two Texas teams heading in opposite directions. The Longhorns are aiming for March Madness while the Red Raiders are looking forward to golf season. That’s why the Longhorns are favored on the college basketball betting lines in this spot.

The Texas Longhorns Can Win Because…
The Red Raiders are a hot mess right now, which you should keep in mind when looking over the NCAA Basketball odds. They are just 13-18 on the season, 3-15 in Big 12 play and have lost seven of eight against the conference. Since the start of 2015, they have just three wins.

The Red Raiders are not very good at any one thing. Their best scorer only averages 10.6 points per game, which isn’t anywhere near what some of the other Big 12 leading scorers are putting up. That’s just one piece of evidence indicating how much this team struggles in scoring. They produce just 61.2 points per game while shooting 40.3% from the field. That field goal percentage is dead-last in the conference. They also rank last in scoring margin, getting outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game on the season.

The Longhorns might be on the bubble but it won’t burst here. They have three double-digit scorers in Isaiah Taylor (13.1), Myles Turner (10.8) and Jonathan Holmes (10.0). Turner has been named the Big 12’s Freshman of the Year. While their offense should do well in this game, their defense should have a very easy day. The Longhorns rank first in the Big 12 in defensive field-goal percentage and are second in scoring defense. This is just a mismatch of epic proportions and the Red Raiders will have to do something out of the ordinary to steal this one. The Longhorns look like the better choice here.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders Can Win Because…
The Longhorns aren’t exactly a dominant juggernaut. They’ve managed back-to-back wins versus Baylor and Kansas State, but prior to that had lost four straight. On the season, this is a team that’s 8-10 in Big 12 play and is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

As is always the case in these types of scenarios, a must-win situation doesn’t mean that the Longhorns will in fact win the game. Usually, the team that has nothing to play for comes out far more relaxed. If they can get a big game out of Devaugntah Williams. He’s averaging double-figures (10.6) for the Red Raiders and if he can get cooking, he could be the catalyst that gets them going.

It’s a lot of points here and while the Red Raiders might not win outright, a cover is definitely a possibility.

 

Outlook
Taking a look at The Greek, this line opened at Texas -11 but has dropped to -10.5. I think that line has moved the wrong way. The Longhorns are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a neutral site favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. The Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a dog in that same range. Take the Longhorns here with your NCAA Basketball picks.

NCAA Baskebtall Pick: Texas -10.5 at The Greek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2825250, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here