NCAA Basketball Picks: Tempo in Michigan St. vs. Boston College Keeps Score Low

Charles Stark

Friday, November 27, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

What do we want for another NCAA college basketball pick when the Boston College Eagles take on the Michigan State Spartans? The NCAA basketball odds will give us the answer. 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA Basketball odds have come out at a total on this game of 145 -110 at Bookmaker sportsbook. I think that is a bit too high, so for one of my NCAA college basketball picks, I will be backing under the total in this spot.


Boston College Eagles
Boston College comes in averaging 75.3 points per game, shooting 44.8% from the field, and 41.8% from beyond the arc. Three point shooting has been a real bonus for them this year and they come into this game 3-0. Still, they are now going to face one of the best defensive teams in the country in Michigan State who play extremely well on that end of the floor. Head coach Jim Christian simply does not have a lot of scorers in his lineup as they lost about 85% of their scoring from last year. Senior Dennis Clifford has been a monster on the glass averaging 10 boards per game, and scoring wise senior guard Eli Carter is averaging just over 18 points per contest. Although they have played decent this early in the season, tonight should be a reality check for the Eagles.

Defensively, Boston is allowing 54 points per game, 35.2% shooting from the field, and 32.1% from beyond the arc. As a defensive unit, their opponent points per game and opponent field-goal percentage are two of the highest ranked statistically in the country. They will definitely be put to the test tonight though against the Michigan State team that has athletes across the board. I like for Boston College to step up to get just enough stops to help stay under the total.


Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State comes in averaging 85.5 points per game, shooting 50.2% from the field, and 40% from beyond the arc. This seems to be so far a far cry from the grind out defensive first mindset of head coach Tom Izzo. Denzel Valentine has led the way as the preseason rankings predicted, and right now they have four guys averaging double figures per game rounded out by Matt Costello averaging 9.8. They haven't been overly aggressive as far as tempo goes, but they have just been extremely efficient with an effective field-goal percentage of 56.8% per contest ranking 28th in all of college basketball. As well, they have been moving the ball all over the place averaging 24.2 assists per game which ranks second. Being on a neutral floor probably won't slow them down very much, but this total is really high and I like for Boston College to try and slow things down against them. Although I don't think the Eagles will have a ton of success in stopping Michigan State, the way I think the tempo will go should help stay under the number.

Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 59.8 points per game, 34.6% shooting from the field, and 25.7% from beyond the arc. This is the guts of this play as I think Boston College is going to struggle a lot against a very talented Michigan State defense. In order for this game to get over a high total of 145 I think both teams have to contribute, and I don't see the Eagles scoring much in this contest.


Final Analysis
Michigan State should handle business in this early season tournament, but the way this game sets up for me makes this call for under the total the way to go. For one of your NCAA Basketball picks, I recommend backing under the total of 145 when these two teams meet in Fullerton. Look for Michigan State to win handedly and for Boston College to struggle putting the ball in the basket.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 145 at Bookmaker

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