NCAA Basketball Picks: Teams to Fade for Point Spread Success

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 22, 2015 6:07 PM GMT

Improve your NCAA basketball betting experience by reading this handicapper's advice on the worst offensive teams.

The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight
Already this season, I have presented lists of my “140 CBKB Defensive Dandies and More” and my list of “2015 CBKB 230 Offensive Club Members.”   The information in these articles is a must if you are doing any statistical handicapping in CBKB this season.  Those first two articles refer to the best defensive and offensive teams in college hoops.  Today, we shift gears and look at the teams, who are the worst offensive teams in CBKB.  I will call them “The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight,” as their offensive numbers are so inept that it leads to pointspread victory less than 40% of the time.  The following are the criterion for teams to become a member of “The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight.”

1.      Score 67 or less points per game.

2.      Shoot 40% or less FG percentage.

3.      Shoot 33% or less from behind the 3 point arc.

4.      DO NOT have a positive rebound margin, A/TO margin AND TO margin.

You will note that these numbers are exactly the same as the parameters I use for Defensive Dandies.  The symmetry of this thinking lends great confidence to the solidarity of my theory, as well as leading us to 60% pointspread winners.  Note also, that while our Defensive Dandies must not have a negative in the fundamental columns of rebounding, assists or TOs, it is also true that we EXCLUDE any team from this list, if they have positives in all those supporting categories.  It once again proves that, though defense and offense are important factors in statistical handicapping, they all MUST be supported by teams who rebound the basketball, take care of the basketball and have solid shot selection.  

The chart below reflects statistical numbers through Sunday, January 18th.  All numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number for ease of use.  Here is our list of “The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight.”

TEAM

PPG

FG%

3 PT %

TOTAL

SU

ATS

App St.

64

39

30

133

6-10

7-7

Bradley

59

38

33

130

5-13

3-11

Delaware

62

37

32

132

4-13

5-6

Drexel

57

38

30

125

4-13

4-12

Fairfield

62

40

31

133

6-12

6-8

Fordham

63

40

28

131

6-10

5-6

Houston

67

39

32

138

6-10

3-7

J’ville St.

63

37

29

129

8-12

5-6

Marist

58

39

31

128

1-17

6-10

Marshall

66

39

31

136

4-14

7-8

N. Arizona

67

40

33

140

8-10

6-8

N. Illinois

66

40

30

136

7-8

3-6

Nevada

63

39

26

128

6-10

6-8

Niagara

63

39

32

134

2-14

5-10

Rutgers

60

40

30

130

10-9

9-7

San Diego St.

61

40

28

129

14-3

6-8

San Jose

54

37

28

119

2-16

3-11

Temple

64

38

30

132

12-7

6-9

Towson

63

40

32

135

8-11

5-8

W. Illinois

63

39

33

135

4-10

4-8

The SU, ATS numbers of these 20 teams tells you all you need to know for our purposes.  These 20 teams are just 123-222 SU, winning just 35.7% of their games.   Even more illuminating for our purposes is the combined spread record of these teams which is 104-164 ATS (38.8%).  Should you like to carry this theory a bit further, consider that the 6 teams whose total shooting number is 130 or less are just 27-56 ATS (32.5%). 

As with all sports handicapping, remember that this is only one way in which we analyze a team.  From a statistical standpoint, this list should be augmented by a team’s defensive number, as well as the fundamental numbers such as rebound margin, A/TO margin and TO margin.  When combined with situational analysis, home/road dichotomies, coaching personality profiles and technical trends, you have the makings of a complete handicap. 

Now that you know which teams to fade, find out who deserves your NCAA Basketball picks.