NCAA Basketball Picks: Take Michigan St. All The Way As They Host Wisconsin

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, February 18, 2016 4:23 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 18, 2016 4:23 PM UTC

Wisconsin travels to Michigan St. for a rematch of a (77-66) Badger victory over the Spartans, 8 games ago. Check out our NCAA Basketball picks for Thursday night's game. 

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Michigan State -9½
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Wisconsin vs. Michigan St. (-10-) 9:00 ET ESPN
Yesterday, I wore an ugly holiday sweater representative of my ugly pick on S. Carolina Tuesday night. It didn’t help, as there were negative returns once again on the 3 selections here last night, dropping the BKB record of SBR Videos to 33-23 ATS (not bad, considering they are FREE).

Today, Wisconsin travels to Michigan St. for a rematch of a (77-66) Badger victory over the Spartans, 8 games ago. That kick started the Wisconsin season after they were 9-9 SU out of the gate. That streak ended with a shocking (70-57) upset of Maryland on Sundayas a 9 point road dog. Today, they enter the Breslin Arena with an 8-4 SU Big 10 mark (one game BETTER than Michigan St. in league play). Under interim HC Gard (replaced legendary longtime Wisconsin HC Ryan in mid-December), the Badgers have returned to their roots of mistake free offense, solid defense and their patented swing offense. This all masks the fact that they are one of the least experienced and least athletic teams in the league. Those deficiencies will be clearly exposed tonight, once the Badgers fall behind.

Make no mistake; they will surely fall behind out of the gate tonight! The Spartans are still seething about the one point loss at Wisconsin and trailing in the standings will come with great focus, intensity and passion. The return of Player of the Year candidate, Darnell Valentine, has kick-started the current 2nd half surge for the Spartans. He is off a great all-around performance in Michigan St.’s (88-69) home romp over Indiana on Sunday. Tonight, the Spartans take the floor at the Breslin Center in one of their most profitable roles. Izzo is 49-11 ATS on this court to (-11) with 4 or more days’ rest. 


My Betting Analysis
In late season for the last 20 years, the Spartans are undefeated as a favorite in this price range, when playing with same season revenge. Fundamentally speaking, this is one of Izzo’s best teams (of many) in recent seasons. If defense and rebounding wins basketball games, expect major success for the Spartans tonight. Sparty leads the country with a nearly (+12) rebound margin per game, allows just 64/37/29 from the field, dishes out 21 assists per game, while averaging 80/48/42 on offense, while converting 73% from the stripe. It’s all Sparty tonight in this wire-to-wire, 20-point trouncing of the Badgers.

Final note: Michigan St. is 5-1 ATS as double digit home chalk this year! I invite you to put the NCAA Basketball odds boards in your favor and join me in my NCAA Basketball picks on Michigan St. tonight.


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