NCAA Basketball Picks: Take Disciplined Navy +12.5 Over Oregon

Mark Lathrop

Monday, December 7, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 7, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

Navy and Oregon play for the first time on Monday night in Hawaii. Does one squad have the betting edge and worth our ncaa basketball pick for tonight?

Oregon vs. Navy Betting Odds
For the first time in history, the 6-1 Oregon Ducks will play the 7-2 Navy Midshipmen in basketball on Monday night in the Pearl Harbor Classic. The Ducks find themselves atop the early Pac-12 standings while the Midshipmen are on top of the aptly named Patriot league. Early odds have Oregon favored by 12 points, coming down a bit since opening as a 13-point favorite. No total has been posted as of Sunday afternoon on the NCAA basketball odds board. This game is taking place in Bloch Arena in Honolulu and therefore this game is considered to be on a ‘neutral site’.


Oregon Ducks
The 15th ranked Ducks are coming off of their first loss of the season on Friday in their first road game of the season. They got beat as two-point favorites by UNLV 80-69 on the road. In that game UNLV came out on fire from three-point range hitting eight shots in the first half, so expect Oregon to focus on defending the three better against Navy.

In that game Oregon’s freshman star, Tyler Dorsey, fell awkwardly while going for a loose ball and had to be helped off the floor and to the locker room. It certainly appeared to be a season ending injury, but Dorsey was actually able to return to the game – much to the surprise of the Oregon fans. Dorsey has averaged 14.4 points, 4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists so far through seven games, and it appears he will still be able to play on Monday night.

Oregon has a very well rounded offensive attack with five players averaging in double figures. There is of course, Tyler Dorsey with 14.4 PPG, followed by Dillon Brooks with 13.3 PPG, Chris Boucher with 12.4 PPG, Elgin Cook with 12.3 PPG, and Dwayne Benjamin with 12.1 PPG.


Navy Midshipmen
Navy is led statistically by Shawn Anderson and Jace Hogan. Anderson has averaged 13.2 points per game while Hogan has averaged 12.0 points per game. Anderson is also near the top of the Patriot League in making 47.4% of his 3-point attempts.

Navy’s schedule hasn’t been too tough to start the season, with this Oregon game being the first against a ranked team. They did play Florida in the opener, getting beat by Florida 59-41. They then got beat by Charleston 72-58 in their second game of the season. However, it’s been all W’s since then with Navy winning their last seven games, most by a comfortable margin. They have scored over 70 points in five straight, while defensively they have not allowed a team to score more than 66 points in their last seven games.

Oregon has been in more close games than Navy, beating Baylor by only seven, Valparaiso by six, Fresno St. by five, before finally getting beat on Friday by UNLV by 11 points. Oregon is 2-3 ATS this year in games with betting lines this year, and where prone to going on long ATS losing streaks last year. They have been streaky – in a bad way.

With this game being in a neutral site in a wonderful tropical environment, I’d expect some distractions for the players traveling to this game. I trust that the discipline of Navy will be higher than that of Oregon, just by the nature of their two programs. Navy will bring their defense in this one and should be able to force a lower scoring game. With a lower overall score, 12 points is going to be a big number to cover, so I am going to be taking Navy plus 12 points on Monday night as one of my NCAA basketball picks.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Navy +12.5 at 5Dimes

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