NCAA Basketball Picks: Take Auburn To Cover Over Injured Ole Miss

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 1:19 PM GMT

An injury depleted Mississippi Rebel team tries to defend home court against the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday night, and our capper has the value NCAA basketball pick for you.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Auburn +5
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Auburn vs. Ole Miss Odds Overview
?Two teams trying to climb out of the bottom half of the SEC Conference standings meet on Wednesday night, with the Auburn Tigers (9-9, 3-4) visiting the Mississippi Rebels (12-7, 2-5) in a matchup that can be seen on the SEC Network. The early NCAA basketball odds boards posted as of Tuesday evening are split on this matchup, with lines of 4.5, 5, and 5.5 favoring the home team Rebels at various books. The line has been coming in towards Auburn; however, as indicated by Heritage opening the line at 6.5 before coming down to 4.5 just 8 hours later. The O/U total is expecting a higher scoring affair and is currently listed at 156 at Bookmaker.

Auburn’s road woes continued in their last game on Saturday night at Florida, where they lost in convincing fashion, 95-63. Florida was hot from the field in the game, shooting 56.9% from field goal range and adding nine 3-pointers at a 47.7% make rate. Auburn also allowed Florida to get to the free throw line 24 times to their 14, and Florida’s 20 free throws eclipsed Auburn’s 9 by a wide margin. It was a defensive effort to forget that’s for sure.

Auburn was still led by their two leading scorers on the year, senior guard Kareem Canty, and senior forward Tyler Harris, who scored 12 and 14 points in the game respectively. This was a below average effort for both, as Canty averages 18.9 points per game and Harris averages 15.2 points per game with 8.1 rebounds. Canty transferred from Marshall so this will be his first game against Mississippi. Harris transferred from Providence, finding Auburn as his 3rd school, so he hasn’t played against Mississippi either. This makes looking at last years’ matchup between these two schools a pretty useless exercise.

Another missing name from this matchup is on the Mississippi side, that of junior forward, Sebastian Siaz. Siaz was averaging 12.8 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game before being lost to injury recently. The Rebels haven’t been the same without him and are 1-4 SU in their last five games. This includes losses in their last four straight, with two of those at home and two on the road.

Mississippi is coming off of an 83-77 loss to an 8-10 Mississippi State squad on the road. In that game the leading scorer for the Rebels, Stefan Moody, and his 24.3 points per game, was out with a strained hamstring. That left junior guard, Rasheed Brooks, to fill in as he logged 34 minutes and put up his second 20-point effort of the season with 8-15 shooting and four 3-pointers made. With the injury, true freshman guard Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey also saw double the minutes he usually sees at 28 for the game and added 16 points.

 

Betting Analysis
As I stated above, there will be many new faces in this game as compared to previous years’ matchups. However, Mississippi has historically played Auburn tough at home and is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-0 SU. I think these trends have inflated Mississippi’s chances of covering the spread though, especially with the injuries on the Rebel’s team right now. The early money moving that line favoring Mississippi to just 4.5 points is smart money, and I feel fine tailing it while taking Auburn and the 5 points at BookMaker as one of my NCAA basketball picks.

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