NCAA Basketball Picks: St. Mary's To Stay Undefeated At Home When Hosting Pepperdine

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, February 11, 2016 3:23 PM GMT

Pepperdine drives north to Moraga to take on the St. Mary’s Gaels in an WCC clash. The Gaels are undefeated at home, but will they stay like that & cash our NCAA basketball picks?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: St. Mary's -10½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Pepperdine vs. St. Mary’s (-10) 11: 00 ET
The Pepperdine Waves drive north to Moraga to take on the St. Mary’s Gaels in this WCC clash. When these teams met earlier this season, Pepperdine emerged with a (67-64) victory on January 9th at the Waves’ Firestone Fieldhouse home. At that time, it was just the second defeat of the season for St. Mary’s, who had begun the season 13-1 SU, 12-0 ATS. That game marked the beginning of a 6-game ATS losing streak for St. Mary’s, as the prices had sky rocketed when the Gaels covered their first 12 chances on the board by 139 points. St. Mary’s turned around their fortunes in their most recent game with a dominating (60-43) road win at bottom of the barrel, San Diego.

But, the price adjustment is still in effect for the Gaels. After laying 8 points at Pepperdine in that first contest (less than 1 month ago), St. Mary’s is now asked to lay only 2 points more when playing at home in this revenge game. St. Mary’s will be doing so on their undefeated home court and with the benefit of being a member of the 140 Defensive Dandies, which I wrote about on Tuesday. More specifically, much of St. Mary’s success has been built around a defense that allows just 59 PPG, just 40% from the field and only 34% from the arc. This is also a completely fundamentally sound team. The Gaels have a dominating +7.7 rebound margin and a +8.3 assist/TO ratio. The efficiency carries over to the offensive end, where St. Mary’s is making over 51% of their shots and over 42% of their triples (over 9 per game). With numbers like these, the confidence of playing on a home court, where they are undefeated in 15 games (with 13 of them being by 10 or more) is exactly what we are looking for when laying this reduced number with St. Mary’s. 15th year HC Bennett may have done his best coaching job ever. With no returning starters, Bennett has banded together his Australian imports and oddly configured roster as one of the most efficient and successful teams in the country!

 

Betting Analysis
The visiting Waves have plenty going for them in their own right, as 5th year HC Wilson has increased the Pepperdine win total in his 5 years from 10 to 12 to 15 to 18 and now stands 14-10 SU this season with hopes of a 20-win season still alive! But, the momentum has waned the last couple of weeks with a 0-3 SU slide, including losses to BYU and Gonzaga (the 2 other top teams in the loop). Unfortunately for Pepperdine, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time in their effort to reverse those fortunes.

We lineup with St. Mary’s at a value price on their undefeated home court with revenge against the failing visitor for what figures to be a comfortable double digit victory. I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on St. Mary’s in tonight's game