NCAA Basketball Picks: South Florida vs. UConn

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, March 12, 2015 12:59 PM GMT

Tonight South Florida travels to meet UConn tonight at 8:30 ET. Our expert handicapper will share with you his free NCAA Basketball pick and more!

S. Florida vs. UConn (-14) 8:30 ET ESPN News
South Florida travels to Connecticut to face the defending NCAA Champs in an 8:30 ET battle as televised by ESPN News. South Florida is currently listed on the NCAA Basketball odds as double digit underdogs.  Each of these teams has notably under achieved this season, as represented by their identical 10-17 ATS record.  Many will kneejerk to the defending champs on their home court after they defeated S. Florida by 13 and 14 points in the regular season.  That would be a mistake based on CCT playoff theory and the coaching personality trends of each of these teams.

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South Florida has been a struggling team each of the last 3 seasons. Following a pair of 12-win seasons each of the previous 2 years, the Bulls hired Orlando Antigua to turn around their fortunes. Antigua was a player and coach at Pitt, then spent several years on the staff of John Calipari at Kentucky. Though the talent level is currently lacking in S. Florida, Antigua is expected to raise the level of the program with his great recruiting connections. This year, however, has been a lost season in Tampa. Their demise was solidified when their best interior player, Chris Perry, was lost to a chest injury in late January. At the end of February, one of their best perimeter players, Corey Allen, was suspended for 6 games.  Neither is expected to be in the lineup today. Through it all, however, the Bulls have played at a slower tempo with great passion.  The result, as to expected, was a record of 5-1 ATS as road dog of more than 10 points, losing by only 3 at NC State, 11 at Alabama, 13 at UConn, 7 at Tulsa and 5 at Cincinnati.  All those results get us the money tonight.

 

Though UConn was not expected to repeat its national title run of last year, the Huskies were clearly an under achieving team at 17-13 SU, 10-17 ATS. The only way they can punch their ticket to the Big Dance is to win this event. Implicit in that statement is that they conserve energy for the possibility of 3 future games on their way to stealing the CCT crown on their home court.  All-conference guard, Ryan Boatright, is not enough to cover this double digit spread. That was true 6 different times this season, as the Huskies failed to cover every number at this price point.  There were victories over lowly COC by only 8 points, a 1 point loss to Yale, then wins of 7 vs. UCF, 13 vs. USF, 13 vs. ECU and 7 vs. Tulane. None of those margins get Huskie backers the money tonight.

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In addition to the strong coaching trends and team profiles, as outlined above, note that in the last 25 years of CCT play,  sub.400 teams, who are below .500 ATS for the season, play with double digit revenge and are off 4 or more losses, are a better than 70% ATS play in CCT action. Take South Florida with your NCAA Basketball picks.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Take S. Florida +13.5 at 5Dimes