NCAA Basketball Picks: Road Favorite VCU To Cover Big Spread vs. UMass

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, February 11, 2016 4:30 PM GMT

Virginia Commonwealth travels to face UMass in this 7:00 ET A10 contest. Find out who holds the best value in this matchup for our NCAA basketball picks tonight.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: VCU -11
Best Line Offered: at GTBets

 

VCU (-11) vs. UMass 7:00 ET ESPN
VCU travels to face UMass in this 7:00 ET A10 contest. Though the Rams and Minutemen are headed opposite directions this season, VCU figures to be on high alert after they squeezed out a narrow 6 point victory over UMass last year in Richmond! On Saturday, February 6th, VCU entered their 10th conference game of the year on a 12-game winning streak with a 9-1 ATS mark. When the dust cleared, visiting George Washington had pulled a shocking (79-69) upset as 9 point underdog. On Monday, I penned an article about Letdowns and Bounce Backs. One of the featured games was that VCU/George Washington contest. Last night, we used the frontend of that result for an easy Top Play Winner against George Washington in their (84-66) loss to St. Joe's. Tonight, we come back with the second half of the previous game reversal, playing the bounce back on VCU. Under 1st year HC Wade, VCU has transformed his version of “havoc” into a successful run. They have won and covered every conference road game, including winning the last 4 by double digits. This figures to be yet another in a long line of road successes. While the 94 foot game suits VCU perfectly (they average 78 PPG on 45% shooting with 8 triples at 38%), the UMass offense has not been nearly as successful shooting just 43% from the field and 33% from the arc. More specifically, UMass will be willing to run with the Rams and have a defense that is allowing 77 PPG. On the perimeter, the VCU pressure will be ultimately successful, as the UMass guards, Davis and Hines, are each under 6 feet tall. 

 

Betting Analysis
It has been a disturbing rebuilding season for 8th year HC Kellogg, who has seen his win total plummet from 24 to 17 to a 9-13 SU, 5-11 ATS record this year. Of greater concern is that the Minutemen are mired in the basement of the A10 at 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS with only LaSalle having a worse record. UMass has faced only one quality foe of the caliber of VCU on this court all season. As a home underdog to Providence in late December, the Minutemen lost (90-66) to the Friars. Equally disturbing is their home loss to bottom of the barrel, St. Louis, who beat them (86-75) on this court.

With VCU coming off their first loss in 13 games and snapping a 9-1 ATS run, UMass finds themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for the Rams to bolt to an early lead and continue to apply the pressure and extend the margin throughout.

I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on VCU in tonight's game.