NCAA Basketball Picks: Revenge Takes The Spotlight In Iowa St. vs. Baylor Crucial Matchup

Charles Stark

Tuesday, February 16, 2016 2:57 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016 2:57 PM GMT

In their first matchup earlier in the season Baylor made a monster come back against Iowa State to pull the upset on the road. Who will come up on top for our NCAA basketball picks?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa State +3
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out with Iowa State a +2 underdog like at Heritage -105. Considering they lost at home to the same team, this small line is a bit surprising. When we start to break both of these teams down, though, it starts to make some sense, and for one of my NCAA basketball picks, I will back the Cyclones plus the points. They have a good shot to win this game on the road or at the worst take this game to the final shot.

 

Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is averaging 82.3 points per game while shooting 50.2% from the field, and allowing 73.8 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 12-9-1 overall against the spread, and 7-5 on the road. This is an extremely talented team that has lost several close contests this season. Tonight puts them in a decent revenge spot against a team in Baylor that has not played very well at home as of recently. Offensively, they are one of the best in the country and they rank first, third, and fifth in field goals made per game, overall shooting percentage, and two point shooting percentage respectively. They also rank eighth in the country in effective field-goal percentage and they love to push tempo averaging 63 field-goal attempts per game. On the defensive side, there is really not a lot to hang their hat on, but from opponent shooting efficiency to opponent three point shooting percentage, they are better across the board when compared to Baylor. What they have been extremely good at is not allowing teams to get to the line very often, allowing opponents just 14.2 free-throw attempts per game which ranks second in the country. They should get enough stops tonight and score a feverish amount of points against a lackluster Baylor defense.

 

Baylor Bears
Baylor is averaging 77 points per game while shooting 46.3% from the field, and allowing 69.3 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field. On the season, they have been very poor going 6-12-1 overall against the spread, and 3-8 at home. Recently at home, they have really struggled losing three of their last four games highlighted by their last loss losing by 18 points to Texas Tech. Normally, I would put them in a bounce back spot, but they simply have not played well enough on the defensive side for me to give them the nod against a quality and talented Iowa State team. Offensively they are efficient, and surprisingly don't push tempo as much as we are used to seeing out of Baylor. Still, they are one of the better offensive teams in the Big 12, and they rank in the top third of NCAA basketball in most offensive categories. As well, I like how unselfish they are as the average 18.3 assist per game which ranks fourth in the country. Defensively is where they really struggle, and although they are very good in rebounding the ball and not allowing second chances, their defensive percentages across the board are not good. Baylor ranks as one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and in the bottom third of NCAA basketball in opponent shooting efficiency, opponent effective field-goal percentage, and opponent shooting percentage from beyond the arc. This lack of defense is nothing new to a Scott Drew team, as they are usually so strong on the offensive side, their defense doesn't need to be special. Not making defense a premium tonight against Iowa State though will spell trouble.

For one of your NCAA basketball picks today, I recommend backing Iowa State plus the points. It'll be very interesting to watch the pace of this game, but at the end, I like the Cyclones chances of getting a key road victory. There should be plenty of offense tonight, but I believe the value is with Iowa State.

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