NCAA Basketball Picks: Purdue To Come Out Victorious Over Michigan St. In Tough Physical Battle

Charles Stark

Tuesday, February 9, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tonight Michigan St. travels to take on a very good Purdue team. However, does the value for our NCAA basketball picks lie with a rejuvenated Michigan St. or a tough home team in Purdue?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Purdue -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out with Purdue a -1.5 favorite like at Bookmaker -105. Even with Michigan State looking like they are back in business, this will be a tough place for them to play tonight. Purdue matches up with them very well, so for my NCAA basketball pick today, I will back the Boilermakers minus the points.


Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is averaging 79.4 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field, and allowing 62.9 points per game on 37% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 14-9 overall against the spread, and 7-5 on the road. We have had Michigan State games on a few of our plays this season, and I really like Tom Izzo's team. In their last four games, they played really well but tonight will be one of the stiffest test they have had all season. The Spartans, offensively, move the ball as well as anyone in the country averaging 20.3 assists per game, and they have been shooting the ball at an extremely good 42.4% from beyond the arc which ranks fourth in the country. As well, typical of an Izzo team, Michigan State averages 42.8 total rebounds per game which ranks them third in the country. Although they have been a different type of monster this season scoring the basket, they will have some tough matchups tonight against a Purdue defense that is one of the best in the country. Defensively, they rank second, third, and fourth in opponent effective field-goal percentage, opponent overall shooting percentage, and opponent shooting efficiency respectively. They have been really good on both sides of the ball but it is never easy to travel in Big Ten play. Purdue has been extremely good at home this season and they will not be intimidated in their house.


Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is averaging 78.3 points per game while shooting 46.3% from the field, and allowing 63 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 12-8 overall against the spread, and a really good 7-3 at home. Head Coach Matt Painter has best team he has had in the past five seasons and Purdue could actually be the of those sleeper teams in March. They are coming off a tough loss at Maryland, a game in which they lead going into halftime, and they are tied with Michigan State for fourth place in the Big Ten right now. Offensively, like Michigan State, they move the ball and hit the boards averaging 18 assists per game which ranks them eighth in the country, and grabbing 42.5 total rebounds per game which ranks them fifth. They also rank in the top part of the country in shooting efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and overall shooting percentage. Defensively, they have been extremely good ranking third and fifth in opponent shooting efficiency, and opponent field-goal percentage respectively. They also are very good percentagewise from the inside out allowing opponents to shoot just 41.6% on their two-point shots, which ranks them 12th in the country, and 30.6% from distance, which ranks them 24th. This team is almost a mirror image of Michigan State statistically so it is no wonder this line is so tight.

It makes sense for odds makers to make Purdue the small favorite in this spot, and for of your NCAA basketball picks, I recommend backing the value with the Boilermakers. This game is going to be tough and physical throughout and will probably go down to the last five minutes. I expect Purdue to play one of their best games of the year, so this is a good spot to take them minus the small number.

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