NCAA Basketball Picks - Pittsburgh Gaining Value Against PSU

Jason Lake

Saturday, December 10, 2016 3:19 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 10, 2016 3:19 PM UTC

The Pittsburgh Panthers opened as 6-point home faves on the NCAAB odds board for Saturday’s game against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Join expert capper for a complete betting analysis and get your picks ready!

Important news, ladies and gentlemen: The Great UNDER Rush of 2016 has ended. We’ve been recommending the UNDER as a blanket auto-bet for your college basketball picks, and as we go to press, that’s still been the profitable play at 445-378 (54.6 percent) on the season. But over the past seven days, the OVER has gone 87-82, so we’re calling it a day. The marketplace appears to have caught up.


Penn State Nittany Lions vs Pittsburgh Panthers

So let’s move on to Saturday’s game (2:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Pittsburgh Panthers, live from the Prudential Center in Newark. This is the back end of the first-ever Never Forget Tribute Classic doubleheader; Pittsburgh opened as a 6-point “home” chalk on our NCAAB odds board, and just as I write this, other books are chiming in at –5. Let’s riggidy-roll.

Not In Tournament
It’s been a pretty good start to the year for the Panthers (7-2 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) if you ignore that whole not-cashing-in business. Penn State (6-4 SU, 5-3 ATS), not so much. The Lions are coming off an ugly 85-66 loss to George Mason on Wednesday, falling as 9-point home faves. This program hasn’t accomplished much since Patrick Chambers took over in 2011 – no Tournament invites, no NIT consolations, just the one trip to the CBI in 2014.

#NCAABK Penn State Basketball: Poor Shooting Night Sinks Nittany Lions Against George Mason

— Coach Billy Carson (@CoachCarson) December 8, 2016

There is some hope surrounding PSU and the last couple of recruiting classes, but for now, Ken Pomeroy has the Lions rated No. 117 overall (No. 202 offense, No. 75 defense) in Division I, with an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +3.30. Pittsburgh checks in at No. 57 overall (No. 34 offense, No. 94 defense) and +11.18. That’s a difference of... let’s see, carry the one... almost eight points per 100 possessions. This is college hoops, not the NBA, so we can’t just pretend that every game has 100 possessions per team; Penn State is at 75.2 thus far, and Pitt is at 72.8, so let’s just call it six points. Looks like the original line was the right line.

Well, if the market is looking at Pittsburgh’s awful ATS record and getting cold feet, that’s fine with us. A small bet on the Panthers at their new price makes sense; we’re not seeing any injury reports of note, or anything in the clash of styles to give us pause. One order of Pitt to go, please, and may the sphere be with you.

Free NCAAB Pick: Pitt –5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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