NCAA Basketball Picks: Pair Of Under Values For Tourney Thursday

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, March 10, 2016 2:15 PM GMT

As the NCAA conference tournaments continue, our NCAAB handicapper spots a few long O/U streaks to help him make his Thursday NCAA basketball Picks.

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
The North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6, 14-4) look to bolster their #1 seed NCAA tournament hopes in the ACC tournament quarterfinals, as they match up against the Pittsburgh Panthers (21-10, 9-9) in conference tournament play. These teams have met before this year, playing on Valentine’s Day, with the Tar Heels taking that game 85-64. That was good for an ATS win for North Carolina as 10-point home favorites, while the score went under the 153 consensus O/U line. In this game, North Carolina comes in as a 7.5-point favorite while the O/U total has opened up at 148.5 on the NCAA basketball odds board.

Both of these teams come into this game with an 8-2 trend in the last ten games favoring the under. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in each of their last five games by very large margins in fact. These trends include the game between these teams on Valentine’s Day. That game is peculiar, in that it went under the listed total yet Pittsburgh had their worst defensive performance of the year by allowing the Tar Heels to shoot 59.3% from the floor.

There is little reason to believe the Tar Heels will shoot that well again on a neutral court, as they average 46.2% from the floor in road games and Pittsburgh holds opponents to 43.0% shooting on the road. Additionally, Pittsburgh is 3-8 O-U in road games this year, where they average 69.5 points per game.

This game starts at noon, and I expect that the teams will be a little sluggish to start off because of the early start time. I’m taking under 148.5 points in this one at BookMaker as one of my Thursday NCAAB Picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 149.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma 
In this game between ranked Big-12 opponents both teams are locks for the NCAA tournament, but a win here likely jumps the victor up a seed or two. The 6th ranked Oklahoma Sooners are coming into this game after winning two in a row ATS, while the 21st ranked Iowa State Cyclones are coming off of a loss to the #1 ranked Kansas Jayhawks. These teams have met twice already this year, with Iowa State being 2-0 ATS after splitting the games SU and the scores garnering a split in O/U terms. The odds in this game have the Oklahoma Sooners favored by three points while the O/U total has opened at 161 at Bookmaker.

The Oklahoma Sooners have slowed down the pace in their last handful of games, which has resulted in the team cashing in on the under in eight straight games coming into this contest. On the offensive front, the Sooners have also failed to exceed 76 points in their last eight games as well. That hasn’t bode well for Oklahoma backers either, as they have gone 2-6 ATS in that span.

Iowa State is one of the best shooting teams in the country, with a field goal percentage exceeding 50% in road games this year. That has translated to just a 13-15 O-U record though, as the Cyclones have gone through streaks of over and under performances of 5 or more in a row this year when the tide turns against them. This game has the highest total in the last 12 games as well for both Iowa State and Oklahoma. Back the 8-0 under trend for Oklahoma in their last eight games and take under 161 in this game as one of your NCAA basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 161
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes