NCAA Basketball Picks: Pac-12 Betting Trends

Peter Loshak

Wednesday, January 23, 2013 6:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013 6:31 PM UTC

College Basketball Betting with Peter Loshak - Here we break down recent events in the Pac - 12, who to tail and who to fade with your college basketball picks as of February 7th.

The Pac 12 has an interesting ATS distribution conference-wide at this point in the season, and also one that is not terribly unusual to come across.

Namely, the top teams in the conference have tended to be bad bets in conference play and have relatively poor ATS records on the year, while the worst teams in the conference have been the best bets on the year and have maintained winning ATS records in conference play.

Those ATS trends, though, are not necessarily likely to continue as we head into the middle of the February Pac 12 schedule.

Utah, still the team in the Pac-12 with the best ATS record overall, has been a losing proposition in Pac 12 play recently. And they have been doing so by relatively wide margins. Oregon St, the other cellar-dweller in the Pac 12 along with Utah, is also showing signs that they may not be a good sports pick going forward, despite having covered 6 out of their last 7 Pac 12 games.

The Pac 12 can be a very unpredictable conference in general, but there are still teams that are showing strong ATS tendencies in various kinds of situations, especially with home/road splits. Many teams appear to be particularly overvalued this year at home and in overall, the unpredictability of the Pac 12 both in terms of spreads and totals is not necessarily a bad thing.

Selling points, in other words, taking bigger underdog lines, on both sides and totals, can be a good way to take advantage of volatility in a conference like the Pac 12.

I look into all of this in detail in my ATS update for the Pac 12 covering the games through February 5th.

January 23 Pac-12 Betting Trends Edition

The best team to beat the betting odds against the spread in the PAC-12 this season so far has also been one of the worst teams on the court in the conference, Utah. Despite being just 1-5 straight up in conference play so far this year, Utah is 11-4-1 ATS overall on the year. But that impressive ATS record may not be predictive of similar ATS success with the heart of the PAC-12 schedule coming up.

Arizona and Oregon, the two teams from the PAC-12 currently ranked in the Top 20 nationally, may simply be good for our basketball betting on the under. Especially if their year-to-date totals trends hold up. Both have seen their games go significantly under their posted totals during their rise to the upper ranks of college basketball this season.

There may be some line value in upcoming PAC-12 games fading Oregon St and Arizona at home, and betting on Washington and Arizona St on the road. In my current ATS update video for the PAC-12, I get into the indicators of why.

Washington is normally thought of as a high-scoring member of the PAC-12, but has seen very low final scores thus far this season. USC on the other hand, is normally thought of as a team that has low finals scores and might be expected to trend under, has actually been one of the higher-scoring teams in the conference this year.

In my PAC-12 video this week, I analyze all of this and identify situations and specific games where I will be looking for value in the next few weeks in the PAC-12.

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