NCAA Basketball Picks: Oregon State vs. Oregon

Jeff Grant

Thursday, February 28, 2013 2:34 PM GMT

In Mathew Knight Arena, the Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks will meet for the 339th time this Thursday night, making it the most-contested rivalry in college basketball.


Let’s take a closer look at NCAA basketball betting lines for this Pac-12 Conference showdown, with the opening tip scheduled for 11:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Falling just short

Oregon State has lost seven games this season by four points or less, including a 60-59 setback to the California Golden Bears as 1.5-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going UNDER the total for the fourth time in five opportunities.

The Beavers are 3-12 straight up and 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS) when taking on conference foes this year.

Trending upwards

Oregon has captured victories in four of its last five games, including a 77-66 victory over the Stanford Cardinal as five-point home favorites last Saturday, while also going OVER the posted total of 136.

The Ducks have been playing without starting point guard Dominic Artis since Jan. 23 with a left foot injury, but he’s expected to make his return to the floor in this contest.  The freshman averages 10.2 points and 3.8 assists per game.

First meeting

Thursday night’s host has covered the number in four of the last five meetings, including a 79-66 victory over Oregon State as 1.5-point road favorites on Jan. 6, while going UNDER the posted total of 148.

The Ducks trailed by six points at the break, but outscored the Beavers by


a 51-32 margin in the final 20 minutes.

Artis played 23 minutes in that affair—finishing with 11 points and three assists.  

Road wins versus ranked foes hard to come by

Rivalries often create upsets, especially in college basketball, but I’m not going to recommend that readers back the Beavers on the moneyline when looking over the SBR Odds page.

Oregon State hasn’t earned a victory on the road versus a ranked opponent since 1985, while the program has failed to cover the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series.

[gameodds]14/222434/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their college basketball sports picks, as the last three meetings in this series have had a number of 148 or higher, which offers value in the market.

The Ducks should definitely get out and run more with Artis on the floor, especially with the Beavers allowing opponents to shoot 49 percent when playing on the road.

College Basketball Picks: Over 141 at 5Dimes

Check out our picks on the big battle between Duke and Virginia!