NCAA Basketball Picks: Nevada Will Cover ATS Over Montana

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, March 16, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 16, 2016 2:42 PM UTC

No travel involved for the Montana Grizzlies, who lost in the Finals of the Big Sky Tourney to Weber St. (62-59) in Reno on Saturday night. Let's review the NCAA basketball odds for this game.

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Montana vs. Nevada 
Speaking of letdowns for Montana, this game against Nevada in the CBI also qualifies as a major downer, after 4 returning starters from last season made it to the more prestigious NIT last year. For Nevada, who comes off a 9-win season last year, this is the culmination and a reward for getting to the plus side of the .500 mark at 19-13 SU.  


Betting Analysis
With long-time Montana HC Wayne Tinkle matriculating to Corvallis, Travis DeCuire got the call to lead the Grizz. After a 20-13 SU campaign of last and an NIT invite, more was expected of the Grizzlies this season. That’s why the loss to Weber on Saturday night was such a disappointment. Defense first Montana has a solid fundamental profile with positives in rebound margin, TO/assist ratio and TO margin. They also shoot it well at 46% from the field and 37% from the arc. But, that has translated to only 72 PPG in a tempo-controlled offense. Not sure those kinds of numbers will get the job done against a vastly improved Nevada team.

In the wake of a 9-22 SU season of last, HC Musselman was hired to return the fortunes of the Wolfpack, a team who won 28 games (4 years ago), but had just authored 36 victories in the 3 years since. Not much was expected from Musselman in his 1st year. That was especially true when AJ West, their best boy, quit in mid-December. By that time, however, the Pack was off to a surprising 7-3 SU, 6-2 ATS start. The uptick continued through the remainder of the season with infectious optimism, positively affecting the program. Though current best player, Marqueze Coleman, had missed some late-season action with an ankle injury, it now appears that he will be near 100% by game time tonight. His 16 PPG will be greatly appreciated by Wolfpack backers. Among the highlights of this season for Nevada was turning around their fortunes at their Lawlor Arena home. In the previous 2 seasons, the Wolfpack had gone 7-8 SU on this floor. This season’s success was buoyed by an 11-3 SU mark which sees them enter on a recent of 6-1 ATS on this court.       

Look for the excitement and momentum of Wolfpack basketball to carry over to a pointspread winner against a Montana team, whose NCAA dreams were dashed in this same town on Saturday night. I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on Nevada tonight.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Nevada -3
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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