NCAA Basketball Picks: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech

PJ Laferla

Sunday, March 3, 2013 5:48 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 3, 2013 5:48 PM UTC

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (15-12 SU, 9-7 ATS home) welcome in a familiar opponent this Sunday night when the North Carolina State Wolfpack (20-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS away) visit them in Atlanta.

NCAA Picks: ACC Matchup – North Carolina State vs. Georgia Tech

Tip off set to go at 6:00 PM EST.

Sportsbooks such as 5Dimes like the road team in this one, favoring the Wolfpack by -4 points on the college basketball odds board, which certainly makes sense given North Carolina State’s unblemished record of 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings versus the Yellow Jackets when facing them on their home court. The Wolpack are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings overall with the Yellow Jackets.

However, North Carolina State is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on the road.  So that could spell trouble for bettors leaning towards the Wolfpack in this matchup, but I don’t think it will.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has performed badly against the spread when facing teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. In fact, going back to their last 30 contests, the Yellow Jackets are only 7-23 ATS in that scenario.

Even though Georgia Tech notched a victory their last time out, beating Maryland 78-86 at home, while also covering the point spread in that game as -1 point favorites, that might not be good news for anyone siding with the Yellow Jackets in this one.

Why would that be the case?

Well, the Yellow Jackets have failed to carry any ATS momentum with them after winning a game straight up and against the spread, as they are a poor 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games that follow a SU win and point spread cover.

Shifting gears for a minute and taking a look at the total in this game, which seems to be hovering around 136 points with most sportsbooks could a much wiser play if you like betting on the over.

The last nine meetings between North Carolina State and Georgia Tech have gone over the posted total seven times.

Additionally, both the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets tend to go over the number when facing opponents with winning records, as North Carolina State has done it seven of their last ten matchups, while Georgia Tech is 7-2 over in their last nine games in that scenario.


The Pick

At first look, Georgia Tech and their 11-5 home record looks way more attractive than North Carolina State and their 2-6 road mark in this matchup, but the Wolfpack are the better team and will come away with the win and point spread cover. 

I also like this game to go over, but that is just a lean, with my official NCAAB pick being North Carolina State laying the chalk.

NCAA Pick: North Carolina State -4 at 5Dimes

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