NCAA Basketball Picks: Marist To Snap Losing Streak vs. Quinnipiac

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 4, 2016 7:23 PM GMT

It is not very often that you will find value for your NCAA basketball picks on a team that has lost their L10, but such may be the case with Marist as a road underdog at Quinnipiac.

 

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Marist +3½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

A 10-game losing streak may actually be serving the purpose of giving the slumping team value Thursday night when those reeling Marist Red Foxes (4-16, 8-6-1 ATS) pay a visit to the Quinnipiac Bobcats (7-13, 5-7 ATS) at the TD Bank Sports Center in Hamden, CT at 7:00 ET in a game available on ESPN3.

The point spread at Heritage has Marist as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +3½ on the NCAA Basketball odds board at odds of +100.

 

Differing Streaks
These teams are going in opposite directions, but a look at the overall profile of each team suggests that the clubs are not really that far apart. Marist is in a severe slump that has now seen it be the losing NCAA Basketball pick in 10 straight games, dropping the Red Foxes to 4-16 overall and 1-10 inside the MAAC. They do continue to play hard however as they actually have a winning ATS record of 8-6-1 in all of their lined games this season.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac has won two straight games with the latest being a big upset win 64-59 at Fairfield as a nine-point underdog on Monday. Those two straight wins match the number of MAAC wins the Bobcats had in their first nine conference games this season, as they remain just 4-7 on MAAC play and 7-13 overall.

 

Still Offensively Challenged
Do not let the Quinnipiac mini winning streak fool you though as the Bobcats are still one of the more offensively challenged teams in the entire country while averaging just 65.4 points per game on a dreadful 35.6 percent shooting from the field. That offensive ineptitude could make Quinnipiac an auto-fade whenever it is favored regardless of the opponent, and that may indeed be the case here tonight.

In fact the Bobcats ranks dead last among the 351 Division 1 NCAA Basketball teams in two-point shooting at 36.2 percent, and it is not as if they make up for it with good shooting from beyond the three-point arc, where they stand at 34.4 percent. Add in the fact that they are very sloppy ranking 323rd in offensive turnover percentage at 21.4 percent vs. a national average of 18.4 percent and it comes as no surprise Quinnipiac ranks 340th in offensive efficiency.

Thus, the 2-7 record to begin MAAC play seems more representative of where the Bobcats stand this season than those last two wins, and this is certainly a team we would not feel comfortable with betting on as a favorite.

 

Won In Hamden Last Season
Marist opened up conference play by getting blown out by one of the MAAC kingpins in Iona, but the Red Foxes then evened their conference mark at 1-1 with a nice road win at Manhattan. Unfortunately they have not tasted victory inside the conference since then with their current losing streak comprised of nine MAAC losses plus a one-point non-conference loss at Jacksonville.

That streak could very well come to an end tonight though, as while Marist is not terrific offensively, it looks like the Golden State Warriors when compared to Quinnipiac with the Red Foxes ranked 237th in offensive efficiency and 154th in effective field goal percentage at a commendable 50.2 percent.

Furthermore, Marist is above average when it comes to ball protection with an offensive turnover percentage of 17.7 percent, and Quinnipiac does not apply too much pressure ranking 246th in defensive turnover percentage at 17.3 percent. Thus the Red Foxes should be able to run their offense and be able to work for the best shots, and if they can match the 50.2 percent effective field goal percentage for the season, they would almost certainly end the losing streak.

And do not forget that Marist did post an upset 80-74 win the last time it came here to Hamden as a seven-point underdog last season.

 

Money-Makers On The Road
Finally, despite its trouble winning games on the court as of late, Marist continues to be a nice money-maker away from home from a betting perspective going 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and an identical 2-5 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams with losing records.

We feel that these teams are not separated by nearly as much as the recent forms of each club would lead you to believe, so despite the 10-game losing streak, we see value in taking the points with Marist as it could easily snap that skid with an outright upset visiting Quinnipiac on Thursday.