NCAA Basketball Picks: Green Bay vs. Cleveland State

Jeff Grant

Friday, February 15, 2013 12:59 PM GMT

Friday, Feb. 15, 2013 12:59 PM GMT

The Cleveland State Vikings have done their best work at home this season, which could be enough to get past a Green Bay Phoenix’ program that has struggled on the road.


Let’s take a closer look at the NCAA Basketball odds for this Horizon League matchup that tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU. 

Quite a win

Green Bay has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games, as it comes off a 68-59 victory over the Detroit Titans as one-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going UNDER the posted total of 148.

The Phoenix were held the Titans to a season-low point total in that affair, which is quite an accomplishment, considering they ranked in the top-10 nationally in averaging 79.1 points per game.

The flip side

Cleveland State has lost back-to-back games, including a 92-62 defeat to the Titans as 15-point road underdogs Tuesday night, while going OVER the the total for the third time in four contests.

The Vikings are 0-5 agains the spread (ATS) after allowing 80 point or more over the last two-plus seasons, while they’ve allowed opponents to average 74.2 in dropping three of their last five games.

Winning it with defense

The Phoenix will likely tip off as road favorites of 3.5 to 6 points for only the second time over the last two-plus seasons, as their defensive numbers are hard to ignore when making your NCAA basketball picks Friday night.

Through 12 conference games, Green Bay leads the league in allowing opponents to score 60.8 points on 38.5 percent shooting, which includes limiting the Vikings to just 50 points on Jan. 19.

Home-road dichotomy

College basketball handicappers may find some value in backing the Vikings when looking over the NCAA basketball odds boards, considering they’ve gone 8-3 at home this year, while the Phoenix are 2-9 on the road.

The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series, while the OVER is on a 5-2 run at the Wolstein Center in Cleveland.

[gameodds]14/220799/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Phoenix as one of their sports picks Friday night, as the Vikings are 9-20 SUATS as underdogs the last two-plus seasons.  Green Bay will improve to 10-1 ATS when playing on the road with a total of 120 to 129.5 since the 2010-11 campaign.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Green Bay Phoenix -4.5 at Bookmaker

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