NCAA Basketball Picks: Grab TCU +2 At Home Against Oklahoma State

Nikki Adams

Monday, February 8, 2016 8:36 PM GMT

Oklahoma State descend on TCU as the road chalk, but with the game nestled on just a 2-point spread contrarian value might be on the hosts. Find out our choice for the free NCAA Basketball pick.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: TCU +2 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Oklahoma State (11-12, 2-8)
Oklahoma State are mired in a disappointing season with an 11-12 mark straight up overall and a dispiriting 2-8 SU mark in Big 12 play. Compounding matters further is a two-game losing streak going into Monday’s clash with Big 12 rivals TCU. Yet, despite this obviously bleak run of form, they enter as the 2-point road chalk. Do the bookies have it right?

The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State. The former they lost 63-61 on the road but covered as the 7-point road underdogs. The latter they lost 64-59 at home but failed to cover as the 4.5-point road underdogs.

Looking at their last ten games, the Cowboys are just 2-8 SU with wins over Auburn and Kansas. The former they won 74-63 as the 2-point chalk and the latter they won 86-67 as the whopping 9-point underdogs.

Overall, Oklahoma State are 12-8-1 ATS on the season with a 3.5-point winning margin and a plus 2.2-point differential versus the spread. On the road, they are a so-so 3-3 ATS with a 7.7-point losing margin on average and a negative 0.7-point differential versus the spread.  As away favorites, they are 1-0 ATS with an 11-point winning margin and a plus 9-point differential versus the spread.—that was down to the win over Auburn in which they were matched as the 2-point road chalk.

 

TCU (10-13, 1-9)
Inasmuch as the Oklahoma State Cowboys are struggling, TCU is worse off. They prop up Big 12 standings with a woeful 1-9 SU record in conference play and they boast a similarly discouraging 10-13 SU record on the season. As such, it’s no wonder the NCAA Basketball odds makers aren’t taking too kindly to their chances in this game.

Texas Christian Horn Dogs are riding a two-game losing streak into Monday’s clash with Big 12 foes Oklahoma State, which includes losses Oklahoma and Kansas. They are also just 2-8 SU in their last ten games. Both these marks are mirrored by Oklahoma State Cowboys (see above).

Unlike the Cowboys who are also coming off back-to-back losses and are 2-8 SU in their last ten, the Horn Dogs were blown off the court in a 95-72 loss to Oklahoma and a 75-56 to Kansas. Both games saw them fail to cover double-digit spreads of +20 and +13, respectively.

Overall, the Horn Dogs are 7-10 ATS on the season with a -1.6-point losing margin and a negative 2.1-point differential versus the spread. At home, they are 4-4 ATS with a 5.4-point losing margin and a negative 0.1-point differential versus the spread. As home underdogs, they are 4-3 ATS with a 5.6-point losing margin and a plus 1.3-point differential versus the spread.

 

Betting Verdict
Both teams are wholly off form and color, making handicapping this game a right challenge. Neither side leaps off the page with anything that could tip the scale in its direction for our basketball picks. As such, it’s a complete tossup. That said Oklahoma State appear too pricey as road faves considering their poor form, so we’re taking a chance on the home underdogs for our NCAA Basketball picks. Just don’t go betting the farm on it.