NCAA Basketball Picks: Fresno State To Engage & Hang On In Physical Battle Over San Diego St.

Charles Stark

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 2:07 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016 2:07 PM GMT

Tonight, San Diego St. is a small road favorite, but does the value for our NCAA basketball picks for this game fall on the Aztecs or the very good home team in Fresno St.?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Fresno State +3½
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out making the Bulldogs a +3 underdog like at BetOnline -110. This seems about the right line for this matchup, but for my NCAA pick today, I believe the value is on Fresno State. This will be hard and close fought defensive battle, so I will grab the points on a good home team.

 

San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State is averaging 66.1 point per game while shooting 40.9% from the field, and allowing 60.6 points per game on 36.2% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 9-8-3 overall against the spread, and 5-3-2 on the road. In typical San Diego State fashion this is a team without a lot of offense but focus mostly on playing great defense. So far, they are undefeated in league play and are the type of team that is difficult to face in the postseason because of how well they play on the defensive end. Still, this is a tough spot for them on the road in Fresno. Offensively, there is absolutely nothing to talk about when it comes to San Diego State as they rank in the bottom part of the country in just about every offensive category from overall shooting percentage to three point shooting percentage. However, they do hit the boards really hard and average 39.8 rebounds per game which ranks 37th in the country. The key for them is, of course, on the defensive side, where they rank as one of the best teams in the country. This is a combination of their overall emphasis on this side of the ball as well as the tempo they try to control. Defensively, the Aztecs rank first in the country in opponent shooting efficiency, overall shooting percentage, and effective field-goal percentage. They also rank 11th in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 29.5% from beyond the arc. This is an extremely good defensive team, but tonight they face a very well coached and balanced team in Fresno on the road. In four of their five league road victories SDSU has only won those games by an average of four points.

 

Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State averages 73.7 points per game while shooting 42.7% from the field, and allow71.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 9-9 overall against the spread, and 5-4 at home. With a 12-2 record at home, this is arguably the best team that head coach Rodney Terry has had in his tenure at Fresno State. They have arguably the best player in the league in Marvelle Harris and they lead the league in offensive rebounds and turnover margin. And although San Diego State is a very good rebounding team, so are the Bulldogs who hit the glass much better at home compared to on the road. Offensively, there is not a lot to take notice of from this team, but they do try to push tempo averaging 62 field-goal attempts per game making 26.4 of them on average. Although they would be considered a statistically poor offensive team, across the board they are better on this side of the ball when compared to San Diego State. Defensively, they are very good, and very good at home. Fresno State allows opponents to shoot just 32.6% from distance, and they control opponents tempo allowing just 55 opponent field-goal attempts per game. Opponent only make just 22.8 those attempts which ranks them in the top part of the country.

This game should go down to the wire, so there is good value on grabbing the points. Fresno State is a good team with some real good back court talent, so I recommend for one of your NCAA basketball picks to take them plus the points. This will be a really physical contest.

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