NCAA Basketball Picks: Fade Valparaiso vs. St. Mary's In NIT Matchup

Charles Stark

Tuesday, March 22, 2016 1:46 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 22, 2016 1:46 PM UTC

An NIT matchup of a 1 & 2 seed takes place when St. Mary’s visits Valparaiso. Odds makers have made the home team a decent NCAA basketball pick. Which style will move on to New York?

Odds makers have made Valpo a -5 favorite like at 5Dimes -105. For one of my NCAA basketball picks though I will back the Gaels plus the points to take this game to the wire. Although Valpo plays great defense St. Mary’s should be able to hang with them on both sides of the ball.


St. Mary’s Gaels
St. Mary’s was 27-5 on the season and rank first in overall shooting percentage and effective field goals percentage in NCAA basketball. Throughout the season the Gaels were one of the most prolific scoring teams in college and ranked among the top teams in country all season. They also rank third and sixth in shooting efficiency and three point shooting percentage. On the other side of the ball they have been good as well ranking 13th in the country in opponents shooting efficiency and fourth in opponent total rebounds per game. As well, the Gaels rank fourth in college basketball allowing just 61.1 point per game. Randy Bennett is an excellent basketball coach that should have his team ready to face arguably the best defense they have seen all season. I think there is good value on backing them tonight getting this many points despite being on the road. There will be some interesting matchups for both teams but in the end this is just too many points.


Valparaiso Crusaders
The Crusaders come into this contest ranked as one of the better defensive teams in NCAA basketball ranking eighth in the country in both opponent shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. They also rank fourth and ninth in opponent two point shooting percentage and opponent overall shooting percentage respectively. The issue tonight for them might be from beyond the arc though where they allow opponents to shoot around 34% from distance and the Gaels have been deadly from distance this season. Offensively they are decent across the board and are one of the better rebounding teams in the country averaging 41.4 boards per game which ranks sixth in NCAA basketball. Recently they have been giving up quite a few points and this could be an issue tonight against a really good offensive team in St. Mary's. Although they been giving up an average of just 64 points per game in their last five games they have been giving up well over 70 points per contest, which affects them in all NCAA basketball odds boards.

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Free NCAA NIT Pick: St.Mary's +4 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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