NCAA Basketball Picks: Expect A Major Upset When Colorado & Oregon Collide

Kevin Stott

Thursday, February 4, 2016 12:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016 12:24 PM UTC

Let’s dig in, see what we can find out about this showdown between Colorado and Oregon and then provide a profitable NCAA basketball pick or two for our Sportsbook Review readers.

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Final Score Prediction: Oregon 87 - Colorado 81
Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Colorado +10½, Winning Margin, Oregon 1-10 +162
NCAA Basketball Championship $5 Futures Pick: Oregon 100/1 (Paddy Power)
Best Lines Offered: at BetOnlineat PaddyPower


Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon is the site of this Pacific 12 Conference meeting between the host and now 16th-ranked Oregon and the Colorado on Thursday night, but the Buffaloes will really be up against it with the Ducks having won 20 consecutive games on their sacred Home-court. But does that necessarily mean that host Oregon is worth an automatic NCAA basketball pick here?


Odds Overview
Colorado at #16 Oregon: Sixteenth-ranked Oregon (18-4, 7-2 Pac-12) opens the doors of Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene on Thursday night to face Colorado (17-5, 6-3 Pac-12) in a big Pacific-12 game for both teams and with the host Ducks and Dillon Brooks coming in with a respectable (and well-deserved) #16 ranking and riding the heels of a 20-game Home Win Streak, the 5th best mark in the nation. Offshore NCAA basketball odds boards have opened up Oregon as -10 favorites (Bookmaker) with the Total (Points) set at 153½ (Bookmaker). The Money Line (Winner) odds in this game sees host Oregon as -650 Favorites with Road underdogs Colorado priced at +475 (Betway). The Colorado Buffaloes Team Total Points is set at 71½ (Sky Bet, Over -120), while the Oregon Ducks Team Total Points is at 81½ (Sky Bet, Over -120).


Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado (13-6 ATS, 5-2 ATS Away) and sixth-year Head Coach Tad Boyle have been playing some good basketball of late, W3 straight and 5 of their L6 and in its last game, Colorado defeated California at Home in Boulder, 70-62, as F Josh Scott (18 points) led the way with starting G’s Dominique Collier (14 points) and George King (13 points, 6 rebounds) both finishing in double-digits against the Bears. The Buffaloes third starting G, Tre-Shaun Fletcher, had an off-night shooting against Cal, going 0-for-4 from the field and 0-for-2 from on 3-point attempts while the Colorado Bench added 17 points and the Buffs were 5-for-9 from 3-Point range where your 11th Car Wash is free. To beat Oregon in Eugene will be a tall task for the Buffaloes as the double-digit opening Point Spread reveals, but although still relatively new to the Pacific-12 Conference, Colorado (200/1 to win NCAA Championship, Paddy Power) has historically been pretty tough against the Ducks and with Scott (17.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg), King and Collier (3.3 apg) have an outside chance to end the hosts long 20-game Win Streak, although everything will probably have to go the Buffaloes way and Oregon will have to have an off shooting night. Colorado (MST)—who will be without F Xavier Johnson—will lose 1 Hour flying to the Beaver State (PST), but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue, especially in the context of Oregon’s track record at Home where the court literally has Trees on it. Your move Stanford.


Oregon Ducks
Oregon (12-7 ATS, 7-3 ATS Home) and Head Coach Dana Altman are now ranked #16 (AP) and Ducks F Dillon Brooks was named National Player of the Week by both the USBWA and the Naismith Trophy and if there were very a good time to secure a small Futures Bet on Oregon (100/1 to win NCAA Championship, Paddy Power), although the best Rule of Thumb to remember when making NCAA College Basketball Futures Bets is that Kansas (2008) was the last team from west of the Mississippi River to actually win the Division I basketball championship while Arizona (1997) was the last one (west of Old Man River) before that. So, two schools in 19 seasons isn’t a great track record and remember that when weighing some other perceived West Coast heavies—they seldom even make it to the Final Four unless by virtue of good seeding and then they lose anyway. And the West has been much stronger in years past. But still, a 100/1, this could be a small Oil Well with some potential hedging possibilities in The Big Dance in a month but with Losses to Boise State, UNLV, this Colorado team already in Boulder and at intra-state rival Oregon State, buyer beware. In their last game, Oregon, and Brooks (16.6 ppg) defeated Arizona State in Tempe, 91-74 (ORE -2½, 154)—completed an Arizona sweep in the Sonoran Desert after ending (then) #18 Arizona’s 49-game Homecourt Win Streak, 83-75—as F Chris Boucher (7.8 rpg) had a career-high 26 points, Brooks added 18 points and 6 rebounds, G Tyler Dorsey provided 16 points and F Elgin Cook 14 points in the Road win. Bench player F Jordan Bell added 9 points and 8 rebounds as the Ducks continued their hot shooting and were 27-53 on FG attempts (50.9%). On the Injury tip, Oregon PG Dylan Ennis (Foot) has been Out for the season.


Best Betting Approaches and Series Trends
These two teams played in Boulder earlier this season and the Buffaloes emerged victorious in a high-scoring affair, 91-87, (ORE -1, 143) in a game where the Finals Score (178 points) ended up going over the Total by a mere 34 points. And with 4 of the L5 Ducks games going Over (9-10 O/U season), it seems this may be a lean here, but with revenge on their minds and the friendly hardwood under their sneakers, maybe backing Oregon and just laying the lumber for a small amount is the best idea here as Colorado is in a mini-groove, has done well against Oregon (5-2 SU L7) and 10 points is 10 points, brother. Last year, when these two schools met in Pac-12 play, Oregon defeated Colorado, 73-60 here in Eugene and covered ATS (ORE -4½, 137½) while the Ducks quacked Oregon out of the Pac-10 Conference tourney, in Los Angeles, 93-85, also getting the butter (ORE -2½, 143½). Lifetime, Colorado Head Coach Boyle is 6-3 SU vs. Oregon and Altman and the Buffaloes have never lost to the Ducks when they’ve been ranked and this should be somewhat close throughout with Oregon possibly a little tired after that 2-game Arizona Road swing (and having played 4 Road games in their L6; at Colorado, at Utah). And whenever it seems a team has even an outside chance to pull off a (perceived) major upset and there are more than a handful of points involved, backing the underdog is something Time has taught me over the long haul. With Scott and G’s Collier (3.3 apg) and King, Colorado should keep it relatively close and maybe provide a scare (and maybe end the Win Streak) at Matthew Knight Arena in a game which seemingly has to be be more low-scoring than last month’s meeting in the Rocky Mountains. Trend-wise, the Under is 20-9 ATS the L29 Thursday games played by Colorado while the Buffaloes are just 5-11 ATS the L16 on Thursday. Meaningless. Oregon is 13-3 ATS the L16 Home games and the Ducks are a sparkly 21-8 ATS in the L29 games overall (72.4%) and this series is tied 5-5 ATS over the L10 meetings. Sometimes a team has another team’s number and it seems Colorado and Boyle may have the Ducks. Expect the Buffaloes to give Brooks and Oregon everything they want here on a good scheduling spot for visitors Colorado.

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