NCAA Basketball Picks: Efficient Offenses Take Center Stage In Duke vs. Miami ACC Matchup

Charles Stark

Monday, January 25, 2016 11:45 AM GMT

Duke face a really difficult task when they travel to take on the Miami Hurricanes. Which will be the right NCAA basketball pick for this matchup? Review it here with us.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 153
Best Line Offered: at GTBets

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds boards have the total for this game set at 153 like at Bookmaker -110. This makes sense, and for my NCAA basketball pick, I will back the over because these teams can both score and go up tempo. Expect both teams to put up more than enough points tonight and for this game to be tight the whole way.

 

Duke Blue Devils
Duke is averaging 85.7 points per game while shooting 48% from the field, and allowing 70.8 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 11-8 on their over under totals overall and 5-3 on the road. The big issue of course with them is that Amile Jefferson is out, and they are only going about six or seven deep. This makes them, I think, vulnerable on the defensive end against a very efficient Miami team, but I think they will still be able to score enough to help get is over this total. On the season Duke ranks fourth in scoring and can flat out shoot from distance averaging 38.4% on their three-point shooting. They're also a good midrange team as they average 53.9% on their two-point shots, and overall, are one of the most efficient scoring teams in college basketball. Although they are without some key players, I believe they are not going to change much about how they will attack offensively, and I doubt they will have trouble scoring. On the defensive side, this has been a tough year for the Blue Devils as they have not been very good on this side of the ball. There are several factors to take into consideration, and one of them is the fact that they have not been defending from beyond the arc very well allowing opponents to shoot 36% from distance. They also rank in the bottom part of the country in opponent assists allowed, and opponent field goals made per game. On top of all this, they rank as one of the worst teams in the country allowing opponents to get off 62.1 field goal attempts per game which ranks in the very bottom part of NCAA basketball. Duke likes to push tempo, period.

 

Miami Hurricanes
Miami is averaging 79.2 points per game while shooting 47.8% from the field, and allowing 64.7 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 9-8 on their over under totals overall, but only 3-6 at home. Offensively, they have four guys scoring in double figures and are very efficient ranking in the top part of the country in both shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. They also can shoot the three decently well averaging 36.5% from distance, and are good in the midrange game averaging 53.7% on their two-point shots. They don't push tempo very much, but as mentioned, they are efficient and can score from all over the floor, not to mention the fact that they put up 90 points at Duke last year. On the defensive side, they have been subpar but rank in the top part of the country in opponent shooting efficiency and opponent effective field-goal percentage. They defend beyond the arc decently well allowing just 32.5% from distance. However, like Duke, they allow their competition to get up and down the floor averaging 58.3 opponent field goal attempts per game which ranks in the lower part of NCAA hoops. Tonight, I expect them to be well fired up to face Duke and not really giving a second thought to the fact that the Blue Devils are coming into this game a bit undermanned.

Miami should win this game, but I think the value really lies on the total. Last year these two teams went for over 160 points, and although I don't think they get to quite that high of a total, I do think they go over this total tonight. For one of your NCAA basketball picks, I recommend backing over the total in what should be an up-tempo game from start to finish.

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