NCAA Basketball Picks: Clemson Worthy Of Parlay Action When Visiting Virginia

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, January 19, 2016 12:20 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2016 12:20 PM UTC

Our NCAAB handicapper has found a live dog and total parlay to boost your bankroll tonight. Read on as he analyzes this matchup and gives his NCAA Basketball Pick!

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Clemson +10; Over 122.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Clemson vs. Virginia Game Review
In a matchup that Virginia needs to win to keep pace in the competitive ACC, they host the hot Clemson Tigers (12-6, 5-1) in Charlottesville. The 13th ranked Cavaliers (13-4, 2-3) are tied for 8th in the conference, while Clemson is alone behind North Carolina who is sporting a perfect conference record so far. Even though the spots in the standings wouldn’t lead to this conclusion, the Virginia Cavaliers are heavily favored in this game on their home court. NCAA basketball odds boards have the Cavaliers favored by 10 points at Pinnacle. The initial O/U total is set at a low 122.5 at Bookmaker, as Virginia has a style that leads to lower scoring games.


Clemson Tigers
Clemson comes into this game having won five in a row including four SU wins as a listed underdog at home. The last two wins were impressive, as they beat 9th ranked Duke then followed that up with beating 8th ranked Miami at home. Senior forward, Jaron Blossomgame, had a monster game against Miami and put up 25 points to go along with seven rebounds. He not only led the Tigers in that game but leads them over the season as well, averaging 16.1 points per game.

Clemson was a perfect 15-15 at the charity stripe in their game against Miami, which they won 76-65. That follows the game against Duke in which they were 12 for 13 from the free-throw line. Blossomgame was 8-8 against Duke and 5-5 against Miami with his free throws.


Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia didn’t fare too well in their last game on Saturday, falling 69-62 to Florida State on the road after being up 28-25 at halftime. The Cavaliers shot a putrid 39.3% in that game while allowing an un-Virginia like 48.8% from the field by Florida State. The leading scorer for Virginia this season, senior guard Malcolm Brogdon, had a terrible night from the floor. Brogdon shot 4-17, good for a 23.5% field goal percentage and 10 points, well below his average of 16.6 points per game and 42.4% field goal percentage. Junior guard, London Perrantes, led the Cavaliers with 19 points and added four rebounds.  

The last matchup between these two teams was all Virginia, as they won 65-42 at home as a 16.5-point favorite in a game that went under the listed total of 118. The game was the third ATS cover in a row for Virginia, although the last ten games are as even as can be at 5-5 ATS. Clemson is also 0-5 SU when playing in Virginia in their last five tries there. Actually, Clemson has struggled on the road all season, going 2-8 SU in their last ten games. That is at odds with Virginia’s home trends, as they are 5-0 SU in their last five games at home.


Betting Analysis
Early betting consensus has Clemson getting most of the action in this game, as the ten points are too hard to keep from taking with how hot the Tigers are. I’m inclined to agree with the early movement, but I also like the over in this game with Virginia’s recent struggles on defense. Virginia has allowed four of their last five opponents to score more than 60 points, and with the implied Virginia score from the point spread, a repeat performance or even close to it has this game going over the listed total of 122.5. I consider Clemson a ‘live dog’ in this matchup, and am parlaying Clemson +10 with Over 122.5 as one of my Tuesday NCAAB Picks.

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