NCAA Basketball Picks: California To Continue Solid Home Campaign Over Oregon

Charles Stark

Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:34 AM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 11, 2016 11:34 AM UTC

We head to the West Coast for late night action when Oregon visits California. Could the value for our NCAA basketball picks be on backing the home dog?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: California +1
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out with Oregon a -1.5 favorite like at Heritage -110. With their record, this line makes sense, but for one of my NCAA basketball picks today, I will be backing the California Golden Bears at +1.5. I think they have a good chance to win this game straight up or, at worst, take this game to the very buzzer.


Oregon Ducks
Oregon is averaging 77.7 points per game while shooting 46.4% from the field, and allowing 67.7 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field. On the season, they are very good 14-7 overall against the spread, and 5-4 on the road. They have won six games in a row with a highlight win at Arizona, tonight though, they will have some pretty tough matchups against a talented California team. Offensively, they rank in the top part of the country in shooting efficiency, overall shooting percentage, and effective field-goal percentage. Their statistics are not really that dominant, but they are getting it done on both ends of the floor and post a very solid +9.9 scoring average. Defensively, they are good but not great and rank just in the top half of the country in most defensive categories highlighted by allowing opponents to shoot just 45.5% on their two-point shots. Head coach Dana Altman has a nice amount of talent and the Ducks have been putting up points in bunches on their current winning streak. However, they are facing not only a well coached and talented team in California, but one of the best home court teams in the country.


California Golden Bears
Cal is averaging 74.3 points per game while shooting 46.6% from the field, and allowing 66.7 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 11-2 overall against the spread, but 9-5 at home. California is undefeated in Berkeley this season with a 14-0 record at home, and tonight they should be well fired up to face first placed Oregon. More so than that is the fact they played Oregon very tough at Oregon earlier this season only to lose by three points. As well, when we look at their schedule overall, although not stellar, they have been competitive in every single league game never losing by more than single digits. This is a very talented team that has had several close tough losses this season, but they can make up for a lot of that tonight with an upset win over Oregon. Offensively they rank in the top part of the country in overall and two point shooting percentage, and they rebound the ball well averaging 39.4 total rebounds per game. Defensively is where they get it done and they rank ninth, 15th, and 16th, in opponent effective field-goal percentage, opponent shooting efficiency, and overall opponent shooting percentage respectively. The highlight though is that they rank first in the country in opponent two point shooting percentage. This should help them tonight against an Oregon team that does most of their damage from the interior extended.

It makes sense for odds makers to make Oregon the small road favorite, but for one of my NCAA basketball picks, I believe the value lies with taking the undefeated home team in Cal. Expect an electric environment and for California to at the very least take this game to the final shot, but more likely to pull the upset.

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