NCAA Basketball Picks: Big 12 Pick for Thursday

Jeff Grant

Thursday, March 14, 2013 1:09 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 14, 2013 1:09 PM GMT

The Baylor Bears are certainly on the bubble in terms of making the 2013 NCAA Tournament, which should have them motivated on the defensive end against the Oklahoma State Cowboys Thursday night.

Let’s take a closer look at the College Basketball betting odds for this Big 12 Conference Tournament matchup at the Sprint Center, with the opening tip scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Let SBR be your 2013 NCAA Tournament betting headquarters.

Needed that one

Baylor is coming off its biggest win of the 2012-13 college basketball season, as it captured a convincing 81-58 victory over the Kansas Jayhawks as 4.5-point home underdogs last Saturday, while going UNDER the total for the third time in four contests.

The Bears are 15-14 straight up (SU) and 8-20-1 against the spread (ATS) off a win against a conference rival.

Solid basketball

Oklahoma State has won eight of its last 10 games, as it enters off a solid 76-70 victory over the Kansas State Wildcats as 4.5-point home favorites last Saturday, while going OVER the total for a third consecutive affair.

The Cowboys are 13-5 SU and 8-9-1 ATS when taking on Big 12 opponents this year, with the UNDER going 6-4 in that situation.

Tough spot for the Bears

In a game that figures to be close, Baylor isn’t going to attract my money at the betting window, considering it has gone 1-7 in games decided by five points or less this season.  It suffered a 69-67 overtime loss to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point road underdogs in that situation on Feb. 6.

The Bears have also never won back-to-back games versus AP Top 25 teams in school history, while they’ve dropped 10 of 11 all-time meetings with the Cowboys on a neutral floor.

Quite a streak

College basketball handicappers need to take a long look at the Cowboys at this price on the SBR's College Basketball Odds page, as they’ve won at least one game in the Big 12 Tournament the last nine seasons.

Oklahoma State has also gotten the cash in its last two opportunities as neutral court favorites of three points or less the last two-plus seasons, with both of those games going UNDER the betting total. 

[gameodds]14/224352/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their NCAA Basketball picks Thursday, as the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  Both teams should be properly motivated to get after it on the defensive end—something that you have to account for in your handicapping this time of year.

NCAA Basketball Prediction: Under 135 at Bookmaker

For another take on this matchup, take a look at Dave Lawrence's NCAA Basketball Picks: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State article.
comment here