Kansas is favored to win the Big 12 conference tournament, but there are indications that they might be overvalued at their current odds of +220. To start, their starting center and star defensive presence Joel Embiid, who dealt with injury issues late in the regular season, will miss the tournament, and that is a big loss for Kansas.
And down the stretch, Kansas repeatedly lost straight up on the road to a selection of Big 12 teams. And with a high seeding in the NCAA tournament very likely anyway, Kansas’ conference tournament motivation may not be 100%.
The rest of the field may be highly-motivated to win the conference tournament, however. Oklahoma St has been streaky this year, and they appear to be on an upswing currently, having covered 4 of their last 5, and they are the second choice to win the tournament at +400.
Then Iowa St is an intriguing third choice at +450. Iowa St is led by an elite guard, although they do have some holes in their game, and they lost 6 of their last 9 games ATS.
Then the fourth choice is Baylor, a team that started the year playing very well, slumped in the middle of the regular season, losing both SU and ATS, but then rebounded and came on strong at the end of the year, going 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8.
And then the fifth choice is actually Oklahoma at +800, the second seed in the tournament, and a team that has covered their last 6 spreads in a row.
And then even Texas and West Virginia, both at +1200, have legitimate shots at winning the tournament, and a win by either would not be a huge shock of a result.
So the Big 12 tournament is clearly wide-open, and to my eye the best value might lie with Oklahoma at +800 for my college basketball picks.