NCAA Basketball Picks: Bet UNC & 'Over' In ACC Rivalry vs. NC State

Kevin Stott

Saturday, January 16, 2016 11:39 AM GMT

North Carolina welcomes intrastate rival North Carolina State to the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill on Saturday afternoon in a huge game for the Wolfpack, who will be our NCAAB pick?

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Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 90  North Carolina State 73
NCAA Basketball Picks: North Carolina -15 & Over 158½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

North Carolina State vs. North Carolina
This familiar ACC showdown sees North Carolina State (10-7, 0-4 in ACC) head down Tobacco Road to Chapel Hill and the Dean E. Smith Center to face fierce rival and #5 North Carolina (15-2, 4-0 ACC) in a big ACC tilt on Saturday afternoon, especially for the visitors who really need a conference win and to stop their slide. Oddsmakers have opened host North Carolina 14-point favorites (at William Hill) here with the Total (Points) opening up at 159½ (Bookmaker).

 

North Carolina State (74.9 PF-70.5 PA)
On a 4-game Losing Streak but those 4 Losses (1-3 against the NCAA basketball odds) came by just 7, 3, 5 and 5 points and getting up for rival North Carolina will be no problem in this one for Head Coach Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack (100/1 odds to win National Championship, Ladbrokes). In its last game, NC State (2-2 Road) lost at Home in Raleigh to Florida State as the Seminoles got their first ACC win, 85-78. G Maverick Rowan scored 26 points, F Abu 21 points and G Anthony Barber 16 points in the Loss as the rest of the Wolfpack squad combined for just 19 points. G Caleb Martin had an awful shooting night for the Wolfpack— currently dwelling in 15th place in ACC—as he went 2-13 from the Field including a “Stop Shooting Bruh!” 1-10 from 3-Point territory while starting F BeeJay Anya added just 2 points. Here the visitors will need Barber (ACC-high 22.5 ppg, 4.9 apg) to work his magic in the backcourt and Abu (8.3 rpg) to have some presence in the frontcourt to hang with the talented Tar Heels and try to keep the Home crowd as quiet as possible.

 

North Carolina (8-8-1 ATS, 13-3 Over)
Brice Johnson have played some great basketball so far this season, are riding an 8-game Win streak and have already beaten a bunch of solid teams, including Syracuse, Florida State, Clemson, (then) #22 UCLA, Georgia Tech, Texas, (then) #2 Maryland and Northern Iowa. In their last game, the perennial College Hoops powerhouse North Carolina (8/1 to win National Championship, Ladbrokes) took down the Orangemen at the Carrier Dome in upstate New York, 84-73, ruining Jim Boeheim’s return for Syracuse as star F Johnson scored 16 points, F Justin Jackson also had 16 points, G Joel Berry II had 14 points and F Isaiah Hicks had 21 off the tar Heels Bench going 5-5 from the Field and 11-for-13 from the FT line and adding 8 rebounds, 7 of them Defensive. Johnson (16.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg) is a force for #5-ranked North Carolina (87.5 PF-71.8 PA) and Head Coach Roy Williams with Berry II (4.4 apg) feeding the Big Guys down low, it’s hard not to imagine this Tar Heels (9-0 at Home) team making it at least to the Sweet Sixteen come March and all that perennial Madness.

 

Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
North Carolina State won (and easily covered) the last meeting, 58-46 (Feb. 24, 2015) in this series, but in the L10 meetings in this series has seen a 5-5 ATS split with NC State covering the L3 in a row, NC the previous 2, NC State the 2 before that and NC the 3 before that, that. Confused? Good. My work here is done. The Totals are also split 5-5 ATS (O/U) in the L10 meetings. That aforementioned last meeting saw the wolf Pack win outright here in Chapel Hill as big 9½-point Underdogs, so some Eggs and Revenge might be served up here early in the Don Best betting rotation books. The Tar Heels covered 3 of the previous 4 meetings here at Home and the large double-digit opening Point Spread (15) shows what oddsmakers think about this game. If you like host North Carolina, it seems you’ll have to pay a premium, built into the line. The Tar Heels—whose 87.5 ppg is the highest (Offense) in the ACC—have W8 straight and won’t want to lose to their heated rivals here at Home and North Carolina (9-0 at Home) will remember losing that last meeting.The Favorite is an impressive 12-5 ATS the L17 in this series and the Trends point toward the over here with North Carolina Overs 19-6-1 the L27 at Home and the Over an over-whelming 38-18-1 ATS in the Tar Heels L57 bounces overall (67.9%). With Johnson and Hicks leading the way, expect the hosts to roll here in a high-scoring affair which will reek of desperation with the Wolfpack, as our NCAA basketball pick (7-2-1 ATS L10 games on Saturday) doing everything in their power to try to pull off the upset, creating a fast and frenzied pace.