Top Rated Teams Weren’t “Bettor Friendly” on the Road
It’s deceiving because most teams do most of their winning at home and when inter-conference rivalries come into play in a conference like the ACC, even teams like Duke can get slaughtered on the road as the University of Miami proved.
The opposing venue and fans can get under the skin of even the best teams and these double-digit road favorites falter.
If there was one team to make money on last season, it was VCU. They sported an impressive 27-9 record and were 19-3 at home and 8-6 on the road. These are SU records but if you bet on VCU on the road, you got slaughtered as the Rams were a mind-boggling 1-11 ATS on the road. If anyone noticed this trend, there was money to be made.
Take the Points?
It was nearly even as the teams with the best road records ATS were nearly split at 8-11-1. (concerning teams above .500 SU or below). Northern Illinois couldn’t win a game SU at 5-25, but were an impressive 11-5 on the road ATS. Texas State had the 2nd best road record ATS in the nation at 12-3, but didn’t have so much luck SU overall on the season with a 12-22 mark. Two other teams that stuck out were Fresno State (11-19 SU, 12-4 ATS on the road) and Manhattan (14-18 SU, 12-6 ATS on the road).
I’ve always said this as home court advantage is huge in the Ivy league whether you’re the top ranked team or near the middle. Harvard was the only team that could be relied upon as they won the Ivy League Conference with a 20-10 mark SU and were a good bet on the road at 10-5-1 ATS.
A good answer for this is that NCAAB odds makers favored the home team regardless if Harvard was the better team. Harvard would go into the opposing teams arena and cover the spread as the level of play is not up to par with the Big-Ten or Pac-12.
Laying Too Many Points?
Although they had stellar seasons, teams like Kansas (4-6 ATS on the road), Memphis (6-8 ATS), Duke (4-7), Michigan (6-9 ATS), Michigan State (6-8 ATS), and Kansas State (4-8-1 ATS), weren’t the proper bets on the road because they layed too many points due to their high-level status.
Then there were teams like Georgetown (6-3 ATS on the road), Miami (FL) (7-4-1 ATS), Louisville (9-5 ATS), and Valpo (9-6-1) that had great SU records and fared well on the road. These teams, especially University of Miami, were underrated and if you bet on them at home or on the road, you were going to collect.
What Do I Take Away from This?
Unless your Louisville, don’t believe the hype in betting the heavy favorite on the road for most of your NCAAB picks. Most of the time, the home dog or inferior home team would cover. Look for the underrated teams like Miami and Georgetown and you would also be going to the pay window. If there’s a decisive trend like VCU, then tail it.
Let’s see if this same pattern holds strong for the 2013-2014 NCAA Basketball Season.Don't forget to check out my Badgers Futures article~