NCAA Basketball Picks: Baylor vs. Texas

Jeff Grant

Monday, March 4, 2013 2:09 PM GMT

Monday, Mar. 4, 2013 2:09 PM GMT

The Texas Longhorns have enjoyed great success at home when featured on ESPN’s Big Monday, as they prepare to take on the Baylor Bears at the Frank Erwin Center.

Let’s take a closer look at the college basketball betting odds for this Big 12 Conference matchup between Lone Star State rivals.

Crushing loss

Baylor will try to bounce back from its fourth loss in five games, as it suffered a 64-61 buzzer-beating setback to the Kansas State Wildcats as 2.5-point home favorites Saturday, while going UNDER the total for a second consecutive contest.

The Bears are 5-7 straight up (SU) and 3-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in March the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 8-4 in that situation.

Treading water

Texas has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games, as it comes off a 78-65 defeat to the Oklahoma State Cowboys as 13-point road underdogs Saturday, while going OVER the total for the sixth time in seven affairs.

The Longhorns are 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS when playing with one or less days rest since the start of the 2010-11 campaign, with the OVER going 10-7 in those opportunities.

Taking care of in-state opponents

College basketball handicappers are going to have a hard time backing the Bears due to their 2-9 ATS record as road favorites of three points or less, but it’s important to note that they’ve won a school-record 17 consecutive games versus opponents that hail from the state of Texas.

Baylor has won seven of its last nine games against Texas after snapping a 24-game losing streak in the series, including an 86-79 overtime victory as 11-point home favorites Jan. 5.

Big Monday in Austin

The Longhorns land in a great situational spot to potentially improve to 3-0 SUATS as home underdogs of three points or less this season, as they’ve gone 15-6 at home when featured on ESPN’s Big Monday broadcast.

Texas has also managed to win 11 of 14 regular season home finales during the Rick Barnes era, as he tries to improve to 27-7 in this particular series.

[gameodds]14/222958/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Longhorns as one of their NCAA Basketball picks Monday, as the Bears will likely come out flat due to a discouraging loss last time out.  

Baylor is 39-1 in its last 40 games when leading at halftime, but Texas is outscoring foes by 4.4 points at home in the opening 20 minutes of action.

College Basketball Pick:  Texas Longhorns +2 at Pinnacle

Also check out my free picks for the Cincinnati vs. Louisville matchup.

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