NCAA Basketball Picks: Baylor's Losing Streak Will Continue When Visiting K-State

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:48 AM GMT

Let’s dive in, see what we can find out about this Big 12 meeting between #21 Baylor & Kansas State to provide a profitable NCAA basketball pick for our Hoops savvy SBR readers.

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Final Score Prediction: Kansas State 73 - Baylor 67
Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Kansas State -1½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Host Kansas State will have revenge on its purple minds when #21 Baylor come to Manhattan on Wednesday night for a Big 12 showdown at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. The Bears out-clawed the Wildcats in OT in Waco on January 20, so Head Coach Bruce Weber and Kansas State—fresh off an upset win over #1 Oklahoma here on Saturday—will be looking for a little Sunflower State payback. 

 

Odds Overview
#21 Baylor at Kansas State: Wesley Iwundu and Kansas State (14-9, 3-7 Big 12) welcome #21-ranked Baylor (17-6, 6-4 Big 12) to Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas on Wednesday night for a huge Big 12 showdown and tough scheduling spot for Taurean Prince and the visiting Bears who come in on a 2-game losing streak, despite being ranked in the AP Top 25. On Tuesday afternoon, Offshore NCAA basketball odds boards opened up this game with host Kansas State as small 1½-point favorites (Bookmaker) with the Total (Points) set at a relatively low 140 (Bookmaker).

 

Baylor Bears
Ranked #21 in the AP Top 25 poll heading in here, Baylor (5-11-1 ATS, 2-4-1 ATS Away) and Head Coach Scott Drew could be on the verge of their 3rd straight Loss and a plummet from the (silly) polls, although L3 in the Big 12 is like the hardening of a shell for an NCAA Division I Basketball team this season and if (and when) they make the Big Dance—ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Baylor pegged as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Regional today—nobody will want to play the Bears. In their last game on Saturday, Baylor (100/1 to win National Championship, Ladbrokes) lost to #14 West Virginia, 80-69 at the WVU Coliseum in Morgantown, West Virginia as the Mountaineers held the Bears to just 38.7% shooting from the field. G Ishmail Wainright (11 points), reserve G King McClure (11 points), F Taurean Prince (10 points) and F Terry Mason (10 points, 5 rebounds) provided most of the offense for Baylor (10-7 O/U) which was just 25% (4-for-16) from 3-Pointville with Prince going 0-for-5 from long distance. The Bears trailed 38-29 at Halftime but couldn’t rally for the upset in a really tough place to play as Baylor fell to 3-4 on the Road. However, putting the Bears 4 Road Losses under the microscope and we can see that they were to (then) #25 Oregon (74-67) in Eugene, at #24 Texas A&M (80-61), at #2 Kansas (102-74) and at #14 West Virginia here last weekend. So, games that nobody would win, with the Ducks riding a (current) 21-game Home Win streak and Lawrence (Kansas) and Morgantown (West Virginia) historically two of the toughest places for opponents to play in all of College Basketball. Baylor F Jo Acuil (Heart) is Out Indefinitely.

 

Kansas State Wildcats
Beating #21 Baylor at Home shouldn’t be too hard for Kansas State (13-6-1 ATS, 7-3 ATS at Home) and Head Coach Bruce Weber after the Wildcats knocked off then #1 Oklahoma here at Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan on Saturday, 80-69, (OKLA -4½, 148) as Wesley Iwundu (22 points) and Freshman Reserve Dean Wade (15 points) helped the Wildcats move up to 7th place in the conference with the triumph. Kansas State (500/1 to win NCAA championship, Ladbrokes) also got 12 points and 8 rebounds from starting F DJ Johnson while G Justin Edwards added 11 points off the Wildcats (11-9 O/U) Bench. Kansas State shot 52.9% (27-for-51) from the Field against Buddy Hield and the (then) top-ranked (now it’s Villanova) Sooners, who were reminded they play in the toughest conference in the land this year. No rest for the wicked. On the Injury tip for the Wildcats, G Kamau Stokes (Knee, 9.4 ppg) is Out for the Season while F Dante Williams (Foot) is Out Indefinitely. Kansas State will need good production games from Iwundu (12.8 ppg), Justin Edwards (11.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Wade (10.2 ppg) and Stokes (9.4 ppg) to get the victory here. And they should.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Recent Relevant Series Trends
In the L10 meetings in this Big 12 series, Baylor is 5-4-1 ATS while the Over is 7-3 ATS, including the last meeting in January where Baylor won 79-72 in OT (BAY -8½, 140½). The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their L8 Road games while the Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their L11 games played on a Wednesday. Hoo-rah. Kansas State is an impressive 7-3 ATS in its L10 against the Big 12 while the Wildcats are 13-6-1 ATS in their L20 games overall (68.4%). The Underdog is 15-7-1 ATS in the L23 meetings in this series while the Wildcats are an impressive 11-2 SU at Home this season (Losses to #9 North Carolina and #19 West Virginia). But lovable Head Coach Weber and Kansas State are an anemic 1-8 SU against USA Today Top 25 teams, although beating #1 (Oklahoma) apparently ain’t no big thang for the Wildcats. Kansas State is 7-3 ATS here at Home at the Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan this season and with ESPN in town, it will be raucous. Backing the UHF Trend (Unranked Home Favorite) in NCAAB has been a play for two decades and this seems like the perfect spot to back the hosts and lay the minimal lumber (KSU -1½, Bookmaker) with your NCAA basketball picks out there at almost all sportsbooks Offshore and in Las Vegas. The environment will make a massive difference here and will be worth way more than the parroted 3-point Home advantage many automatically plug into to NFL, NBA and NCAAB games.

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