NCAA Basketball Picks: Back Iowa State To Cover ATS vs. Kansas

Jake Walker

Friday, March 4, 2016 7:31 PM GMT

The No. 21 Iowa State Cyclones (21-9) travel to Allen Fieldhouse to take on the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (26-4). Kansas is favored by 8.5 points on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has not been set.

Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones have won three of their last four games. They're coming off a 58-50 home win against the Oklahoma State Cowboys last Monday. Abdel Nader scored 19 points to lead Iowa State and Georges Niang added 17 with 10 rebounds and four assists. The Cyclones broke open what was a tight game by opening the second half with an 11-0 run.  

Iowa State scores 82.2 points per game (14th in the nation) and shoots 50.3 percent from the floor (2nd in the nation) and 38.0 percent from three-point range and they pull down 36.1 rebounds per game. The Cyclones allow 74.5 points per game and their opponents shoot 43.3 percent overall and 33.9 percent from beyond the arc and pull down 33.2 rebounds per game. Georges Niang leads the team with 19.3 points per game, Monte Morris averages 14.3 points and team-bests with 7.2 assists and 1.8 steals and Abdel Nader adds 13.5 points per game.

 

Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks have won ten straight games after an 85-72 loss at Iowa State on January 25. Kansas is coming off an impressive 86-56 win at No. 23 Texas. Perry Ellis scored 20 points for a Kansas team that made 11 3-pointers and led by 24 points at halftime Ellis finished 9-of-11 from the field and Frank Mason III added 14 points in the victory.

The Jayhawks average 81.7 points per game on 49.3 percent shooting overall (8th in the nation) and 43.0 percent shooting from three-point range and they pull down 37.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, Kansas allows 67.5 points per game and their opponents shoot 39.4 percent from the floor and 33.1 percent from beyond the arc and grab 30.3 rebounds per game. Perry Ellis leads the Jayhawks with 16.3 points per game,  Frank Mason III averages 13.6 points and team-bests with 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals and Wayne Selden Jr. adds 13.3 points per game. 

 

Betting Trends
Iowa State is 13-13-1 ATS, 3-2 ATS as an away favorite, 8-9 ATS against conference opponents and 8-8-1 ATS after a straight up win. Kansas is 18-9 ATS, 8-5 ATS in home games, 10-7 ATS against conference opponents and 16-7 ATS after a SU win. 

 

Final Analysis
Kansas is an 8.5-point favorite on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has not been set. As mentioned above, these two teams met on January 25 and Iowa State beat Kansas 85-72 behind 21 points from Monte Norris and 19 points from Georges Niang. The Cyclones overcame a poor start with a 24-7 run midway through the second half, and a three-point play from Niang made it 80-67 with 2 minutes left.

The Jayhawks are on a roll and the betting trends favor them but the Cyclones are also playing decent basketball and they already proved that they can beat Kansas. Iowa State has an explosive offense with too many weapons and even though this is a revenge spot for Kansas, the Cyclones will keep the game close and cover. Kansas might win this game but I'm taking Iowa State +8.5 with one of my NCAA Basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa State +8.5 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage