NCAA Basketball Picks: Back Creighton To Pull An Upset When Hosting Xavier

Charles Stark

Tuesday, February 9, 2016 11:42 AM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2016 11:42 AM GMT

Anything can happen tonight, with a very strange line when Xavier visits Creighton in a Big East matchup. Let's find the best value for our NCAA basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Creighton +1
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds have come out with Creighton a +1 underdog like at Pinnacle at -106. For one of my NCAA basketball pick today, I will back Creighton in this spot to pull the upset. Part of the reasoning has to do with matchups and the fact that Creighton is a very tough home team. However, what really has me backing them mostly today is the fact that this line doesn't seem to make a ton of sense at first glance.

 

Xavier Musketeers
Xavier comes in averaging 80.8 points per game while shooting 45.4% from the field, and allowing 68.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 14-9 overall against the spread, and a stellar 8-2 on the road. This is a really good well-rounded team and Chris Mack has done an excellent job this season. Offensively, they rank in the better part of the country in assists averaging 16.6 per game per game, and total rebounds averaging 41.1 per game. They also have been efficient and can score from the inside to beyond the ark. Defensively, they rank in the top part of the country allowing opponents to shoot just 31.2% from distance. After that there is not a lot to hang their hat on, but they have done a good enough job this season, and have been great at not allowing second chances. The issue for me tonight comes down to they haven't really been challenged in their last three games playing against the bottom three teams in the Big East in Depaul, St. John's, and Marquette. Although they won all three of those games, the last two were at home winning by single digits, and Creighton is a notoriously tough place to play. Last season Xavier escaped playing at Creighton winning by one point, but the year before that they lost in a tight contest.

 

Creighton Blue Jays
Creighton is averaging 81 points per game while shooting 47.4% of the field, and allowing 73.2 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 14-9 overall against the spread, and 8-5 at home. This simply has not been a good season for Creighton, and they have struggled this year so far with a 15-9 record. Still, Greg McDermott is an extremely good basketball coach and except for a few bad losses against some of the nation's elite teams, they have been very competitive this season. Games like losing by two points at home to Providence, by one at Georgetown, and then a couple early season close losses has made this a trying season for the Blue Jays. Offensively, they are still one of the best teams in the country and rank in the top part of some of the most important categories like two point shooting percentage (24th), effective field-goal percentage (27th), and field goals made per game (28th). It doesn't need to be mentioned further, but they are an extremely good home team. Defensively, their statistics are not that great because of the tempo they allow, but tonight I believe they will step it up against a highly ranked team in Xavier. Just like their offense, their defense gets better at home.

This is a good spot to back Creighton to pull the upset, and for one of my NCAA basketball picks, I will back them to do just that. This has been a season of upsets, and I believe it will continue tonight in this important Big East matchup. Xavier has got a lot of attention the last couple days about how good they are, and that usually leads teams to focus a bit less on the task at hand. That attention will most likely come back to hurt them tonight.

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