NCAA Basketball Picks: Back Baylor to Cover +7.5 vs. Iowa State

Jake Walker

Saturday, January 9, 2016 4:55 AM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 9, 2016 4:55 AM UTC

The Baylor Bears (11-3) visit the No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones (12-2) at Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State is favored by 7 points on the NCAA Basketball odds board.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Baylor +7.5

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Baylor Bears
Baylor improved to 11-3 after last Tuesday's 79-62 win against Oklahoma State, their 13th straight home victory. Rico Gathers finished with 17 points and 17 rebounds, one less than Oklahoma State had as a team. 

The Bears average 81.0 points on 46.7 percent shooting from the floor and 35.5 percent shooting from three-point range and their defense allows 65.9 points on 42.0 percent shooting overall. Taurean Prince leads Baylor with 15.5 points per game to go along with 5.8 rebounds, Rico Gathers averages 14.1 points and 11.3 rebounds and Al Freeman scores 13.2 points per game.


Iowa State Cyclones 
Matt Thomas scored a career-high 22 points and Jameel McKay finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds when Iowa State held off Texas Tech 76-69 on Wednesday to move to 12-2. 

The Cyclones score 85.1 points per game on 50.1 percent shooting from the floor and 42.3 percent shooting from three-point range. Defensively, their opponents score 72.3 points on 42.3 percent shooting.

Georges Niang scores 19.2 points, pulls down 6.7 rebounds and dishes out 3.1 assists. Jameel McKay averages 14.4 points and 9.8 rebounds and Monte Morris adds 13.8 points and 7.4 assists.  


Betting Trends
Baylor is 2-6 ATS, 1-1 ATS against conference opponents and 1-0 ATS after a conference game. Iowa State is 0-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, 0-1 ATS after a conference game and 2-4 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5.  


Final Analysis
Iowa State is a 7.5-point favorite on the NCAA Basketball odds board. The betting trends tell us that neither team has been particularly impressive covering the spread, but the sample size isn't wide, so let's break down each squad. Baylor has been solid on both ends of the floor but they haven't played well on the road, losing by 19 points at Texas A&M and by 28 at Kansas. 

Iowa State has very talented starters but their bench is very thin, especially after losing Nazareth Mitrou-Long for the rest of the season. I don't see Baylor winning this game, but they will be able to score enough points to cover the large spread. I'm taking Baylor +7.5 with my NCAA Basketball picks because this is a conference game and after last year's 79-70 victory, Baylor proved that they can win at a tough environment like Hilton Coliseum.

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