NCAA Basketball Picks: Arkansas vs. Missouri

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, March 5, 2013 2:00 PM GMT

The Missouri Tigers are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.5 points per game at home this season, as they prepare to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks Tuesday night. Where do we think that the best betting value lie in this matchup?

Let’s take a closer look at the NCAA Basketball odds for this Southeastern Conference affair at Mizzou Arena, with an opening tip that’s scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Beating the defending national champions

Arkansas snapped a two-game losing streak by earning a convincing 73-60 victory over the Kentucky Wildcats as 2.5-point home favorites last Saturday, while going UNDER the total for the fifth consecutive contest.

The Razorbacks are a disappointing 7-14 straight up (SU) and 6-14-1 against the spread (ATS) off a win against a conference rival the last two-plus seasons.

Can they win three in a row?

Missouri hasn’t won more than two games in a row since a six-game winning streak that took place from Nov. 24-Dec. 22, as it enters off a 89-76 victory over the LSU Tigers as 14-point home favorites last Saturday.

The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win, while the OVER is 20-7-1 in their last 28 opportunities in that situation.

Road woes

It’s no secret to college basketball handicappers that the Razorbacks are one of the worst road teams nationally, which is always important to consider when making your sports picks.

Arkansas is 4-24 SU and 7-21 ATS when playing away from home the last two-plus seasons.

It’s also important to note that the program is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points.

Home-court advantage

Since the 2008-09 season, the Tigers have compiled a dominating 83-4 record at Mizzou Arena, as they try to complete their ninth undefeated home season since 1970.  Missouri is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

First meeting

There’s definitely some perceived value on the road underdog in this matchup, considering Arkansas came away with a 73-71 victory over Missouri as a pick’ em in the betting market on Feb. 16.

The Razorbacks earned that win from beyond the arc, as they managed to knock down 7 of 23 attempts, while the Tigers missed 12 of their 14 shots from the 3-point area.

[gameodds]14/223007/43/us[/gameodds] 

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Tigers as one of their NCAA basketball picks Tuesday night, as the Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games as road underdogs when allowing 75 or more points. 

Missouri has outscored its conference opponents at home by an average margin of 16.8 points per game when hitting or exceeding that number offensively.

NCAA Basketball Pick:  Missouri Tigers -10 Pinnacle