NCAA Basketball Picks: Arizona vs. UCLA

PJ Laferla

Friday, March 15, 2013 2:02 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 15, 2013 2:02 PM UTC

UCLA will have its chance to a beat Arizona for the third time in as many games this season to complete a 3-0 series sweep when the two teams collide on the court this evening.

Pac-12 Tournament Pick: UCLA vs. Arizona

While plenty is at stake to earn the SU win, find out whose college basketball odds line we like the best.

They will play in the semifinals of the Pac-12 college basketball tournament, with tip off set for 9:00 PM EST from the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

Most reputable Sportsbooks, including Bet365 posted an opening line on this contest, favoring the Bruins by -4 points. UCLA is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last six head to head matchups with Arizona.

The over/under total is coming in at 141 ½, though some shops have quickly moved it up to 142 on their NCAA odds boards. Five of the last six meetings between the Bruins and Wildcats have fallen below the posted total.

How They Reached The Semis 

UCLA advanced to the Pac-12 semifinals round by defeating Arizona State be a score of 80-75. The Bruins also covered the -4 ½ spread as favorites in the contest; though it was only by a hook, they still punched winning tickets for bettors who sided with UCLA 

Arizona, who was laying chalk to the tune of -5 points against Colorado, beat the Buffaloes by double digits (79-69) to earn the right to play in the semifinals matchup against the Bruins.

Inside The Numbers

The Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, but they are only 3-11 ATS in their last 14 matchups that follow a game where they earned a point spread cover. UCLA is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played on neutral territory and they have only managed to cover the spread in one of their last six games played on a Friday. UCLA is under in 10 of their last 14 games after a SU win.

The Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when facing a team with a SU winning record and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent has a winning percentage above .600. Arizona is also a dismal 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games that follow a contest where they earned a point spread cover. Arizona is under in 20 of their last 30 games played overall.


The Pick

UCLA seems to have Arizona’s number this season, plus the Bruins will be looking for some payback after Arizona beat them in last year’s quarterfinals round by a score of 66-58.

Lay the -4 points with the Bruins for this college basketball pick, as I expect them to cover the number and advance to the title game.

NCAA Pick: UCLA -4 at Bet365

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