NCAA Basketball Picks: Arizona State vs. UCLA

PJ Laferla

Thursday, March 14, 2013 12:31 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 14, 2013 12:31 PM GMT

We have a solid matchup slated in the Pac-12 this afternoon, as the 9th seeded Arizona State Sun Devils square off against the top seeded UCLA Bruins in the quarterfinals of the tournament, with tip off set for 3:00 PM EST from the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

5Dimes Sportsbook posted an early line, favoring the Bruins by -3 ½ points over the Sun Devils, but the lines have since moved up to -4 on many college basketball odds boards.

Several online sportsbooks have yet to post a total, but Betonline has listed an over/under number of 137 points. If both teams recent play has anything to do with it, we could be heading for a low scoring game. The Sun Devils are under in 24 of their last 33 overall, while the Bruins have fallen short in 7 of 8 that follow and ATS win and 4 of 5 versus Pac-12 opponents.

Which way are we looking to go with our NCAA Basketball picks in this situation, and who is offering the best value?

[gameodds]14/224608/43/us[/gameodds]

The Sun Devils, who boast records of 21-11 SU and 16-10-1 ATS average 70.1 points scored per game on 45.2% shooting; and on defense, they are surrendering 66.4 points per contest, while allowing opponents to shoot 40.9% against them on a nightly basis.

Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six played on a Thursday, but they have only managed 3 covers in their last 14 contests that take place on neutral territory.

The Bruins, who own records on 23-8 SU and 13-17 ATS feature an offense that ranks 26th best in the country, scoring 75 points per game on stellar 45.8% shooting. Defensively, they are holding opponents to fewer than 69 points per game (68.6), while keeping their field goal percentage under 42% (41.9).

UCLA is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on a Thursday and a 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games played on neutral territory. Additionally, the Bruins have only covered two of their last seven games when facing opponents with a winning percentage better than .600.

The Pick

Arizona State beat UCLA 78-60 back on January 26th, which turned out to be the worst loss of the season for the Bruins. When the two schools met again about a month later on February 27th, Arizona pushed UCLA to overtime, before the Bruins were able to come away with the victory, defeating the Sun Devils 79-74.

This time around will be a different story entirely, as I expect the Bruins to easily win this game and cover the spread, ultimately crushing the Sun Devils in this one by double digits.

NCAAB Pick: UCLA at Dimes

Let SBR be your 2013 NCAA Tournament betting headquarters.

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