The ACC conference tournament is an interesting one from a handicapping perspective, as there is no overwhelming favorite, and features top choices that were overvalued to close out the regular season.
The Duke Blue Devils are the favorite at +150, but they went just 2-4-1 ATS over their last 7 games, and have proven to be quite beatable by any ACC team on any given night. The second choice is Virginia at +350, and they have been a solid and consistent team, as well as a good bet, all season long.
Then Syracuse, the former top-ranked team in the nation, is priced at +475, but they will have to turn it around after a precipitous fall at the end of the year. Syracuse went 1-5-1 ATS over their last 7 games, and that span included 4 straight-up losses.
The fourth choice is North Carolina at NCAA Basketball odds of +650, a team that radically improved in the second half of the season and came on very strong both ATS and SU.
So purely based on momentum and recent form, the best value out of the top 4 choices appears to be North Carolina, with Syracuse probably having the worst value. Despite being undefeated and headed for a #1 NCAA tournament seed late in the regular season, an ACC tournament win by Syracuse would now be considered a bit of a surprise.
There could be line value in individual games in the ACC tournament, and I have some potential matchups personally circled. If Pitt advances to the quarterfinals, I’ll be looking to fade them against North Carolina. Pitt has been a good fade for a while now, and I think a motivated UNC should have a decent edge on the spread against them.
And I might be looking to bet on Virginia against the winner of Maryland/Florida St in the quarterfinals. Virginia, again, has been very reliable this season, and generally good against the spread, even as a decent-sized favorite.
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