From a fan's perspective, the ACC is always one of the most exciting conferences to follow, but when it comes to betting, are there any trends that we should be aware of before making our NCAA Basketball picks?
February 7th ACC Spread Update
The class of the ACC so far seems clearly to be Miami, Florida. They are undefeated in conference play, and have impressive wins over both Duke and NC St.
But Miami is still ranked lower than Duke nationally, and more importantly to bettors, seem to still be undervalued on their lines. We may start to see Miami as a huge home favorite and a large road favorite in upcoming games, and as a result, start to even out ATS, but as yet, that has not happened.
Duke is a Top 10 team this year, but despite that, they do still have a solid ATS record on the year of 12-9.
Virginia is another team that has impressed this year, and may also still be sailing a bit under the radar in terms of line value. Virginia is an amazing 9-1-1 ATS at home on the year, and they appear to be a good blind bet as a single-digit home favorite against anyone except elite teams.
With totals, the ACC has been a clear over trending conference in conference play, with even normally low-scoring teams such as Georgia Tech showing strong under trends. Some of those over trending teams may be likely to continue to trend over, while others may not, and with others, it remains to be seen how high the market sets their totals when they square off against one another.
I look into all of this in detail in my ATS update for the ACC covering the games through February 4th.
January 22nd ACC Spread Update
The ACC was a remarkable conference ATS-wise in the early part of the 2012-2013 season, and as of January 18th, only one team in the entire conference had a losing ATS record overall, and even that team, Georgia Tech, was 6-8 ATS. That will even out over the next couple of months with all the ACC teams facing each other in conference play, however.
The top teams in the ACC against the spread so far have been Miami Florida, Wake Forest, Virginia, Boston College, and Clemson. It appears that the NCAA Basketball odds makers have continually undervalued Boston College, and they may be able to remain under the radar since they are near the bottom of the conference standings.
Georgia Tech, however, is looking like their lines will have to be significantly lowered for them to be appropriately valued in conference play. Georgia Tech has lost 5 in a row ATS, and even in the early part of the season, they did not fare well ATS against teams from major conferences.
As impressive as Miami Florida’s ATS performance to date has been, their Under trend has been even stronger. As of January 18th, Miami has not had a game go over their posted total, and their last under was against Boston College, a team that had a perfect record of going Over entering the game.
North Carolina State is looking like a very strong team, as well as a good bet when facing other quality teams at home as only a small favorite. NC State is 6-2 against the spread at home, and their two ATS losses came against far inferior teams where they were a favorite of around 20 points. But against better teams where their spreads were lower, NC State has been a perfect 6-0 ATS. This is something to keep in mind when making your NCAA Basketball picks for upcoming ACC matchups.